Holding the Black Joker in your Hand

[ghostwalker]

Im guessing for most people (myself and drake included) that the real crippling effect of the black joker isnt the score of 0 is brings, but the fact you cant cheat fate with it. Only twist.

So it hits you with a 0, stops you getting even a mediocre cheat in and leaves you in fates hands should you burn a ss.

When it blew up in my face i was playing gamesmistress's ressers. Seamus pops around the corner and flintlocks her. Im holding an 11 and a 13. The eleven gives me a trigger to shoot back and the 13 means he misses. I go for the 11 and burn a ss needing a 2 or more. Bam black joker. Then to add insult to injury max wounds.

It would be fair to point out in the same phase with 0 control cards i got flintlocked by the copycat aswell flipped a 1 for defence and then a ss 1 which left perdita very very dead.

Its just an example of how the black joker can hurt depending on where/when it comes out. But playing Ortegas i am very much in favour of holding it as an expendable card if i have no low cards to flurry/rapid fire with.

[Chanst]

And this is why they say the fear has big eyes.

Would you save that Duet if you pulled 1 or 3 instead of a Black Joker? Ok, I know you could've cheated then, but so could your opponent. Any guarantees?

In the end, the fear of the card will cripple your Control Hand.

To use the example of the Duet, odds are his other card was higher than a 1 or 3, and like you said, he could have cheated if the Black Joker hadn't showed up. Also, like you said, his opponent could've cheated too, but he has a higher chance of surviving if he can cheat with the Duet than if he can't, regardless of what his opponent is holding. We aren't talking guarantees, but the chances are definately increased.

Getting the Black Joker on a flip also increases the chances of your opponent having an even or positively twisted damage flip, which also reduces the survivability of a model. If I cheated the defense of my Duet, and he has to cheat to hit me, he is almost certainly not be able to cheat the damage on account of a negative twist. He also isn't going to have that card to use for damage whenever a even flip comes up.

When my Duet is about to be in the thick of things, I might hold onto the Black Joker an extra turn to make sure she survives most to all of my opponents efforts to kill her. If I am pretty sure she is going to be overkilled, I would probably discard it.

I guess all I am saying it that there are reasons to keep the Black Joker in your hand, just like there are reasons to discard it. It is just another strategic choice like which model to activate first when there is more than one that can be targeted for death.

[Math Mathonwy]

And this is why they say the fear has big eyes.

Would you save that Duet if you pulled 1 or 3 instead of a Black Joker? Ok, I know you could've cheated then, but so could your opponent. Any guarantees?

In the end, the fear of the card will cripple your Control Hand.

In all the wargames that I've played during the 20 years in the hobby, the one constant thing from game to game is that minimizing the effects of chance tends to make you win more in the long run. Basically all minis games are about stacking the odds in your favour and first minimizing the chances and then the effects of catastrophes.

So unless you come up with a more compelling argument than "when drawing a Black Joker, you might have drawn a one instead" coated with some pompousness, I'm not discarding the BJ willy-nilly.

Your reasoning is that instead of drawing the Black Joker you might draw a one or your opponent might just draw better. Funnily enough, the same faulty reasoning is in effect when you discard the Black Joker in the hopes of drawing something better for your control hand. You might draw that one there and the situations where a one in hand is better than the BJ in hand are extremely rare.

That said, discarding BJ when you know the turn being the last of the make-or-break turns is often a justified move.

[Buhallin]

I don"t believe Q has ever claimed otherwise. Nobody's said "Holding the Black Joker means you don't have a 13 in your hand!"

What we've said is that while it's bad, it's probably not as bad as people really think because of how we remember events. Everyone remembers THAT ONE TIME (my personal was a Shikome strike that managed to put together a :+fate:+fate damage flip only to see it come up). Nobody remembers the times it shows up on initiative and you shrug, or it flips when you've got a and it really is no worse than an ace.

Holding the Joker is a cautious approach which avoids a statistically unlikely event because it might happen at just the wrong time. To get that, you give up hand size, which is more than just a single card - hold it for most of the game and it's 4-5 cards. Is that guaranteed to be better? Of course not. But holding it also doesn't save you as much - simply drawing it takes it out of circulation for two turns, so that's the baseline.

It really is a personal choice, and there's not really an absolute right or wrong. Most of it comes down to risk tolerance - are you willing to risk the joker coming up for the chance of improving your hand? That's a tactical choice, and believe it or not, holding the joker isn't the only way to stack the odds in your favor.

[magicpockets]

Cost me second place, possibly even first place in the tourny

Second, I was waaaaaaay to far in front for you to get first

[LoboStele]

Holding the Joker is a cautious approach which avoids a statistically unlikely event because it might happen at just the wrong time. To get that, you give up hand size, which is more than just a single card - hold it for most of the game and it's 4-5 cards. Is that guaranteed to be better?

Is it guaranteed to be worse than having those extra 4-5 cards? Of course not.

And I think that's the crux of the situation here guys. There are some of you on both sides of the fence, and the likelihood of any of you convincing the other group is about nil. There are benefits and negatives to either approach. It just depends on how you personally weight those things.

Me? I figure I'll run into things like Flurry, Headshot, Gambler, etc. enough times during a game, that it's typically just better to hold onto the card. Leaving the Black Joker to circulate through your deck, there certainly is a low probability of it popping up during a critical moment. But having it in your hand means a 0% chance of it popping up, and depending on how you look at it, that would be mathematically infinitely better. Low probability vs. NO probability can be a VERY big difference.

[Hansel]

Hey, been away from this thread for a while, but I'm liking what I'm seeing! Good discussion.

Ok, having lost a critical tournament game due to 1 card flip where I had coryphee duet flip the black joker for defence and die as a result and cost me the game, Im now 100% for holding onto black joker if I get the chance, and only drop at start of last turn...it can really completely end a game if it is pulled at the wrong time, which is totally was yesterday! Cost me second place, possibly even first place in the tourny...Black Joker is EVIL!!! lol

As for this point: was it really the Black Joker that cost you the game, or the fact that you played in such a way that if your Coryphee died you would lose (that is, putting your eggs in one/few baskets). I'm not saying that was the case, but it's something to think about.

Sometimes in games of luck, the game will come down to a single die roll or a card flip or whatever. What a lot of people overlook in such cases, however, is that many times you can play better prior to that die roll/flip such that the game doesn't hinge on it.

[magicpockets]

As for this point: was it really the Black Joker that cost you the game, or the fact that you played in such a way that if your Coryphee died you would lose (that is, putting your eggs in one/few baskets). I'm not saying that was the case, but it's something to think about.

Sometimes in games of luck, the game will come down to a single die roll or a card flip or whatever. What a lot of people overlook in such cases, however, is that many times you can play better prior to that die roll/flip such that the game doesn't hinge on it.

I was there and it really did come down to bad luck, Drake flipped a black joker at a crucial time and his opponent flipped a red joker at a crucial time in the same turn. Gutted...

[Hookers]

Ok. You can't cheat.

That might be a good thing, it might save you a card from a duel that you would've ended up losing regardless.

Cards are a resource. You have to choose when to spend them. By keeping a bad card in your hand you are limiting your resources.

Would you voluntarily play every game with 1 less soul stone than your opponent? It's the same thing.

It's really that simple.

If you need to hold on to it to give yourself peace of mind, then you can do that. A lot of things do nothing and solely exist to give people peace of mind (recreational drugs, tv, dare i say mythology or religion, etc.). Statistically it is the inferior strategy. Yet there will always be people in Vegas playing roulette and betting on the long shots.

[Truefaith]

If I'm playing Lilith or the Dreamer or the Viks I'm probably going to hold the Black Joker. Because I'm probably bringing an Arcane Resevoir or I have the chance to draw extra cards or filter my hand.

Also in my limited experience the first couple activations are maybe not as "crucial" as some of that later ones. So if I'm not holding the Black Joker and I'm 1/2 thru the deck and a crucial flip comes up I have a lot better chance of flipping the Black Joker. So mathmatically 26 cards left in deck typically flipping atleast 2 cards is 1/13 that ur getting the Black Joker.

Ah well I had some distractions while tying this, sick kid running 100degree temp, hopefully I articulated it well enough. Basically you say peace of mind I say its good to know the rest of my deck will do something even if it only adds 1 and I can cheat with the rest of my limited hand.

[Pink Horror]

If you need to hold on to it to give yourself peace of mind, then you can do that. A lot of things do nothing and solely exist to give people peace of mind (recreational drugs, tv, dare i say mythology or religion, etc.). Statistically it is the inferior strategy. Yet there will always be people in Vegas playing roulette and betting on the long shots.

Statistically, there are many situations where it makes sense to keep the Black Joker in your hand, but if it gives you peace of mind to think that you can reduce the game to certainties like that, good for you.

[Hookers]

Statistically, there are many situations where it makes sense to keep the Black Joker in your hand, but if it gives you peace of mind to think that you can reduce the game to certainties like that, good for you.

the few times when it makes sense to do so have been mentioned

OP asked about general strategy, and people have said yes hang on to it omg can't cheat suxorz

[Odin1981]

Honestly hookers you aren't looking at it objectively. Here is my challenge to you play 10 games and make note over the course how many times per game it comes up on attacking, casting or damage flips where if it didn't you would kill a model (or on defense, resist, or wound prevention/ healing flips to save a model).

In most games I play if I don't get it and keep it in my hand for me it works out to about 2-3 times a game. And I play elite crews that have good stats on attacking stats to where often I only have to flip a 7+ or higher for a good chance of flipping a good duel total (13-16 range) unless I'm attacking a master.

Granted I will admit 10 games is a small sample size but I doubt anyone on the boards would have the patience to keep track of say 100 games (and I for one would never do this) for this to make the sample size big enough to have a decent enough size sample to see a fairly accurate (within 2-3%) of a range to get a accurate handle on this.

Edited June 7, 2011 by Odin1981
left out a sentance

[Hansel]

Statistically, there are many situations where it makes sense to keep the Black Joker in your hand, but if it gives you peace of mind to think that you can reduce the game to certainties like that, good for you.

Hey guys, let's chill! No need for heatedness in this discussion. We've got good points on all sides. If you think someone's articulating something too forcefully, you can just say that (and offer good reasons why you think they're incorrect, of course)!

Man, this thread should be culled with the points on both sides put up on the Tactica.

[Math Mathonwy]

Can someone show me a minis game where minimizing the chance of catastrophe doesn't yield more wins in the long run as opposed to playing recklessly hoping for the silver bullet? As I haven't yet run across it* and I've been looking at games from this POV for a long time.

the few times when it makes sense to do so have been mentioned

OP asked about general strategy, and people have said yes hang on to it omg can't cheat suxorz

And the other side is saying lolwut haxxorz l33t skillzors will win the day I pwn blck jokerz!

Oh, wait, no they are not. OTOH claiming that they are certainly makes it easier to "win points" in the argument so perhaps we should all keep rallying against strawmen.

Your comparison to playing a game with one soul stone less than the opponent was extremely silly. In fact, probably the silliest thing yet said in this thread. It's not nearly the same in any way and even the most casual of observations should reveal that fact, which kinda casts everything you say in a bit dubious light, to tell the truth.

*as in, it's blindingly obvious in games such as WHFB, Warmaster, Helldorado, Alkemy and Blood Bowl and a bit less obvious in games like Infinity and LotR though I argue that it is still there.

[AvatarForm]

I play Rasputina, I always hold the Black Joker cos when I discard it I get more cards!

[Raythus]

I understood the 'Decembers Pawn' rule to state that when you 'play or flip' the black joker you get to draw two cards, and as discarding isn't the same I didn't believe it triggered that ability?

[Adran]

If you need to hold on to it to give yourself peace of mind, then you can do that. A lot of things do nothing and solely exist to give people peace of mind (recreational drugs, tv, dare i say mythology or religion, etc.). Statistically it is the inferior strategy. Yet there will always be people in Vegas playing roulette and betting on the long shots.

Have you any proof of this statement.

I know my stats is not the greatest, especially with non finite variables. Anyone with more experience than me on this should be able to easily correct the assumptions I've made, but I haven't seen anyone try.

I even tried to lower the odds I stated when I tried this, as I get through my complete deck 1 or 2 times a game with several of my crews, I have had the black joker bite me twice in 1 turn before. And I know that is abnormal. I'm quite interested in people that typically don't get through half a deck a turn, as they must play very differently to me and my group.

[Ratty]

I think it's very crew dependant.. There are crews where you will just go.. Oh a Gremlin missed, what a shame. There are other crews where you need to guarantee the kill, Seamus firing his Hand Cannon for example. When your crew relies on a couple of models doing the damage failing a flip due to a Black Joker is not good.

If I'm running Jack Daw, I almost always consider the extra card I get from him will be a Black Joker before the game is up. Why would you ever chuck it when you have Jack Daw in your crew, it's just not worth the risk of having it in your deck.

Another example is running Shikome or anything that gets a lot of , the chances of flipping a Black Joker on your crucial models goes up heavily when your flipping 3 cards to attack and 3 cards on the Damage.. that's 6 cards any of which will scuppers an important attack if a Black Joker is flipped..

Edited June 7, 2011 by Ratty

[Drake]

Totally agree with Ratty. Where you have models that have multiple card positive flips, they suffer more for the Black Joker.

My Coryphee Duet being case in point. The Black Joker got it killed due to the extra card flip pulling out the Black Joker just when I didnt need it! So whether it be, Defence/Resist/slow to Die or Attack/Damage, having positive flips increases your chance of a critical timing Black Joker coming up.

[Buhallin]

Can someone show me a minis game where minimizing the chance of catastrophe doesn't yield more wins in the long run as opposed to playing recklessly hoping for the silver bullet? As I haven't yet run across it* and I've been looking at games from this POV for a long time.

I can minimize the chance of catastrophic flips very well by hiding in the back corner all game. Will that yield more wins?

If holding the black joker were free, then there wouldn't even be a question. But it's NOT free. You're giving up a resource in order to reduce that chance of catastrophe. Hooker's soulstone example was intended to illustrate that - playing a soulstone down is more extreme than playing a card down, but the concept is the same, and hardly silly.

So the question is whether the general handicap you take is an acceptable cost for the reduced chance of catastrophe. We've said that's personal, and those of us who don't feel the need to hold it have suggested that it's driven largely by a very typical human tendency to remember big events, and apply undue weight to them. That's a perfectly normal, well-known reaction to catastrophic events, I'm not sure why you seem to be getting so defensive over it.

[LoboStele]

So the question is whether the general handicap you take is an acceptable cost for the reduced chance of catastrophe. We've said that's personal, and those of us who don't feel the need to hold it have suggested that it's driven largely by a very typical human tendency to remember big events, and apply undue weight to them. That's a perfectly normal, well-known reaction to catastrophic events, I'm not sure why you seem to be getting so defensive over it.

Probably because the implication is being made that a human emotional response is the ONLY reason that some people feel the need to hold onto the Black Joker. So some people are arguing to point out that there are valid logical reasons for either side of the argument.

[Buhallin]

Probably because the implication is being made that a human emotional response is the ONLY reason that some people feel the need to hold onto the Black Joker. So some people are arguing to point out that there are valid logical reasons for either side of the argument.

There certainly are, and they've been articulated above - usually with models that have an extra penalty or a lot of :+fate/:-fate flips that increase the chances.

"I can't risk Colette's healing flip" is not a statistically valid analysis - it's driven by fear of an unlikely event. Additionally, those advocating holding it are almost universally dismissive of the cost involved in doing so.

Like it or not, it's a hard thing to analyze objectively. Everyone remembers when the black joker flips, even moreso if it's that 1 in 100 chance for it to come up at just the wrong time. How often have you flipped a 13 for initiative while holding the joker? You've got no idea, I'll bet, but every time it happens that 13 would have been in your hand instead. But it's not an event with impact, so it doesn't register.

It's a tactical choice that everyone will make differently, and there are certainly advantages and costs to both sides. Personally, I weigh the increased flexibility of having more/better cards in my hand throughout the entire game than the chance the joker will come up at a critical point, which is a vanishingly rare event. Risk management is about likelihood and impact, and that guides your decisions on risk mitigation. It shouldn't be insulting to suggest that people are overestimating both the likelihood and the impact of the joker.

[Ratty]

I think your arguing that it's always best to drop the black joker. I don't believe it is. I think that there are arguments for keeping it with certain crews. I think those crews are probably in the minority. But I don't think it's universally a bad idea to keep the Black Joker.

[Buhallin]

I think your arguing that it's always best to drop the black joker. I don't believe it is. I think that there are arguments for keeping it with certain crews. I think those crews are probably in the minority. But I don't think it's universally a bad idea to keep the Black Joker.

Not at all - all the way back in my first comment on this thread I listed some of the same points you did above.

How you handle the black joker is essentially risk management. Risk management is three pieces: Probability, Impact, and Mitigation. Mitigation should be a minimal issue, because you should always be accounting for the potential for failure.

So that means it's Probability and Impact. Probability is affected by models/crews that flip a lot of extra cards. Impact is affected by what happens when it comes up.

Some examples that people have brought up:

Standard duel: Low probability, low impact

Colette healing flip: Low probability, high impact

Jack Daw: Moderate probability, high impact

Colette dying because of a black joker'ed healing flip is high impact, but always only a single card at a single time - low probability. Any flip that hits with Jack hands him to your opponent, which makes it a higher probability, and also a pretty high impact. If you're running Jack+Hanged in a Guild crew, the probability would be very high.

Most people make two mistakes: They overestimate the probability, and their view of probability is skewed by the impact - that is, they feel high-impact situations are more likely to occur than they actually are. This is a very well-known element of risk analysis, and it's universal. I don't think it's extreme or insulting to suggest that a lot of players fall victim to it.