Counting Cards - Is it worth the Effort?

[notmikehill]

wasn't there a thread from a while back about card counters? I recall everyone having a negative view on counting cards like someone in a casino would. Personally if I ran into any sort of player who counted both decks (which seems to be the only way to actually be able to do anything properly, seeing as how you have to outweigh your opponents deck draw chance and your deck draw chance) I think they'd have more problems about competition and probability than something a tabletop game environment would need. The only cards you should be "remembering" are ones that allow for triggers or spells to go off in your deck.

Honestly it's a waste of effort to even try counting cards in this game when you have hundreds of other things going on in a single turn.

[Keltheos]

You mean this one that's been running since 2010?

http://wyrd-games.net/forum/showthread.php?t=15485

[Cats Laughing]

We should also have a long paragraph or two on Deck manipulation and stacking the deck while shuffling or drawing from the bottom as well as swapping out cards for extra 10s or Jokers,

Wait, I can't do this?

[dsmiles]

And I also stated that "which in my own view is cheating" states a personal view and not an official view.

However, it's not an opinion that you alone have. I'm with you, sKeTCH.

[ThePandaDirector]

Better to count on the opponent, know what options they have left and the probability of their next move, then you can actually do something useful - so long as the cards are in your favour =]

Beyond managing my own deck, the cards are less important compared to what's on the table, just knowing your opponent can pull off a trick to give them better odds is enough without focusing too much on what lies in their discard pile.

However, along with pre-measuring, I do not consider it cheating as it is ultimately a very limited method that distracts the player from the important issues.

[Twisted Metal]

Proper card counting is completely useless in this game. Absolutely completely and totally useless.

The only thing that might benefit you is keeping a mental note of which useful cards have already been flipped. That's only slightly useful at best, and I'm sure everyone does it to some extent.

I agree with this entirely. As I stated in my earlier post the advantage that "Casino style card counting" provides you in the game is very slight and in all honesty I dont think the in game risk is worth the gamble. Yeah it might be nice to have a general idea of whats still left however that will not alter the way I play. I would not make a radical change in tactics that could potentially back fire because I suspect the deck is in my favor. This is of course entirely different from making a mental note of which important cards have been played.

And holding onto the black joker is a bit silly.

Not when my friend Jackie D is on the table.

[col_blitzwell]

keeping a mental note is fine, card counting would not be worth to me why would you spend so much time and concentration to count the cards. it just a distraction from the game. if the guy i am playing is counting cards them all they luck to him because you cant change the card on top with out cheating. the reason i say its not cheating is because it will take most of his concentration to count both my cards and his and even if he can do this and play at 100% all hes knows is what i have left not what i will flip.

[Kael Hate]

There's a pretty clear difference between mentally keeping track of whether a couple cards have been used and 'card counting' the ways it was discussed in that thread.

If you're defining me (and probably every other player) as a card counter (and by your out of context definition, a cheater) when I mentally keep track of how many Jokers are in my or my opponent's discard pile then you missed the entire thread's point.

That's like saying every Joe Tourist visiting Las Vegas should be arrested for card counting when they try to remember how many 10s have been pulled out of a single-deck blackjack game.

Just a side note here. According to Nevada state law, Card counting is not Illegal, but collusion while gambling is. Same deal here in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. If we want to relate to out of game scenario's it should be fine to count cards within the rules of the game.

I'm sure Scouting (Watching anothers game to evaluate Card use), Aid (Having another person/tool countcards for you or inform you of card situations) and perveying an opponents deck (Looking through an opponents deck before a flip to calculate odds) without a judge are all frowned upon in a tournament situation, but if you can remember their plays and/or calculatte your own card deck, isn't that simply a skill? Similar situation in judging distance, isn't it simply a skill that i can judge shooting ranges better than you?

[Kael Hate]

I tend to just play the game, whatever card is on top, is what's on top, no amount of work I do can change it. I don't keep track of the cards in the discard pile, or even the ones in my hand.

I'll keep a the jokers in my hand until I need the red one, and on more than one occasion I've got what I call a "cheater's hand", despite not actually cheating. Bad enough it looks like I stack my deck sometimes, though on more than one occasion it looked like I stacked it the wrong way, and I couldn't do anything.

What I consider a "cheater's hand" is when everything I have is above 10, and/or when I have 3 or more 13s in my hand, this also tends to include one of the jokers or more, and I've gotten this more than once to my dismay. I say to my dismay, because I tend to run Friekorps Librarians, I have to discard a card to make them work, and I don't want to.

To make thigns worse, I tend to get these in games I'm already utterly dominating (also to my dismay, I like getting kicked around, it let's me know what my opponent is capable of for future games.), and I don't think that's very fun for my opponent either.

You should claim cheaters hand as a falicy. More cards in hand is better than any particular card in hand except for the Jokers. if you have 4 aces in hand, you cannot flip them. If you have 4 13s then you cannot flip them either and instead have to cheat them out. A cheated out or empty hand offers no protection to Headshoting.

If the opponent does not like the way you shuffle, and makes a point of it at any time. Block shuffle into 7 piles, stack them. Rifle once, and let him cut. It will be the fairest random distribution and any "blocks of fate" that existed from prior rounds will now be broken.

[Ratty]

Just a side note here. According to Nevada state law, Card counting is not Illegal, but collusion while gambling is. Same deal here in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. If we want to relate to out of game scenario's it should be fine to count cards within the rules of the game.

I was going to say this.. Having watched every episode of CSI, Las Vegas and numerous movies set in Las Vegas (a lot with Nicolas Cage), I know quite well that card counting is not illegal, all they can technically do is ban you from betting in their establishments if they believe you are doing it (and probably pass your info on to all the other casinoes). However it is illegal to use any device to do it, or to work in a team with other gamblers.

The thing is every player counts cards to some extent, even it's as little as I've already used the Red Joker this turn or, I've already used the 11, 12 and 13 of crows better use something instead of Arise My Sweet. And I don't think you can say that every player who can remember something that has happened in the turn is cheating. The only way I could avoid noticing things like this would be to drink 2 or 3 glasses of whiskey each turn, and knowing how my mind works I more likely to pass out than actually forget what cards I've used.

Now that I've said that I would not allow players to look through a discard pile (unless they have forgotten what card they have just played, because I know we have all allowed a new player to go back and check whether they have got a trigger), note every card me and they have used, do complex maths on a piece of paper or use a Android device. Why, because it slows down the game more than the fact it gives them any major advantage. With the deck shuffling every turn, the positive and negative flip dynamic, cheating etc. the information's use is actually fairly negligible. In the same way that I wouldn't allow a player to infinitely activate mosquitoes to run out the time in a tournament.

[rancor709]

Card counting in malifaux if your able to do it and glean an advantage by all means count away. I think the effort required compared to the results are negligable. What it can help with is determing relative odds of success at a given moment. Has no real barring but if you been able to see that your opponent has used a majority of there high cards and you a majority of your low. It is highly probably that your attacks will hit home and cause significant damage. However if that were the case its likely your opponent just hit you hard. By the time in a turn you'd have a fair idea of how each deck is shaping up your likely down to the last 2 activatoons of that turn. Again I see it as a skill but its actual prctical application in malifaux is suspect

[nilus]

s I know quite well that card counting is not illegal, all they can technically do is ban you from betting in their establishments if they believe you are doing it (and probably pass your info on to all the other casinoes). However it is illegal to use any device to do it, or to work in a team with other gamblers.

Also they might just break a few bones.

[Ratty]

Also they might just break a few bones.

That's old mob Vegas, those kind of things aren't meant happen any more

[JuJubee]

I don't mind if people try to REMEMBER the cards that have come up. I always try to keep up with both Jokers and the important cards for my master. However, if someone were to pull out a pad of paper or other device to track I would have to draw the line. .... (That is NOT a challenge Ciaran/Mentat Canis)

[Justin]

Proper card counting is completely useless in this game. Absolutely completely and totally useless.

The only thing that might benefit you is keeping a mental note of which useful cards have already been flipped. That's only slightly useful at best, and I'm sure everyone does it to some extent.

And holding onto the black joker is a bit silly.

Mike

I love you.

[Kael Hate]

Proper card counting is completely useless in this game. Absolutely completely and totally useless.

The only thing that might benefit you is keeping a mental note of which useful cards have already been flipped. That's only slightly useful at best, and I'm sure everyone does it to some extent.

And holding onto the black joker is a bit silly.

Mike

I truely wish I could be as Naive as you. With Less thought process comes less worry/concern.

As an player ignorant of the deck you take the chance assuming the remainder of the deck is fair. As an educated player, you can understand whether to stand and shoot or move to better ground for next turn.

A simple example: When fighting Lillith, you realise that the majority of the remainder of your deck is low. Instead of the 53% fair chance you note that you have about a 33% chance to hit and thus a 66% higher chance to be hit. With that information would you not take a defensive stance or move to cover before she acts? As a Naive player you'd probably stand and fight betting on your 53%. Would not doing so be a mistake?

Would you walk into the street without looking? You have the ability to look both ways before you cross, why not do so?

Do you understand the Poker term "To Donk"?

Edit: I feel I was a little harsh I guess but you did say it was useless when it does have use. I can understand if you don't bother to use it if is more effort than you feel is neccessary for the result it gives you. It might be that if you were to use it, it would detract from your tactical gameplay. But I question this, if you were Omniscient in regards to game information, would you choose to ignore that data?

Edited December 16, 2011 by Kael Hate

[Twisted Metal]

A simple example: When fighting Lillith, you realise that the majority of the remainder of your deck is low. Instead of the 53% fair chance you note that you have about a 33% chance to hit and thus a 66% higher chance to be hit. With that information would you not take a defensive stance or move to cover before she acts? As a Naive player you'd probably stand and fight betting on your 53%. Would not doing so be a mistake?

I think your simple example is flawed. Unless your keeping track of your opponents deck as well I dont see how your able to come up with those percentages. The limited ability of the card counting only really applies to simple duels. Thats why it works in black jack... Simple duel to 21.

[Kael Hate]

I think your simple example is flawed. Unless your keeping track of your opponents deck as well I dont see how your able to come up with those percentages. The limited ability of the card counting only really applies to simple duels. Thats why it works in black jack... Simple duel to 21.

Any information is a positive.

Just because your opponents deck may be unknow does not mean that your knowledge is lost. Like Poker, you have to assume all cards are in the deck even if they are in your opponents hand.

Assume that all knowledge of your opponents deck is hidden. The knowledge you know about your deck is that you have no RJ, 13's 12's 11's left. Does the fact that you do not know anything about your opponents deck affect the fact that you cannot outdraw a severe or even deal with any chance severe damage to a target?

[Justin]

I truely wish I could be as Naive as you. With Less thought process comes less worry/concern.

As an player ignorant of the deck you take the chance assuming the remainder of the deck is fair. As an educated player, you can understand whether to stand and shoot or move to better ground for next turn.

A simple example: When fighting Lillith, you realise that the majority of the remainder of your deck is low. Instead of the 53% fair chance you note that you have about a 33% chance to hit and thus a 66% higher chance to be hit. With that information would you not take a defensive stance or move to cover before she acts? As a Naive player you'd probably stand and fight betting on your 53%. Would not doing so be a mistake?

Would you walk into the street without looking? You have the ability to look both ways before you cross, why not do so?

Do you understand the Poker term "To Donk"?

Edit: I feel I was a little harsh I guess but you did say it was useless when it does have use. I can understand if you don't bother to use it if is more effort than you feel is neccessary for the result it gives you. It might be that if you were to use it, it would detract from your tactical gameplay. But I question this, if you were Omniscient in regards to game information, would you choose to ignore that data?

I think one of us totally misunderstands him.

He said card counting was useless. You took that to mean he meant that knowing what is in your deck is useless.

However, I think he was talking about a traditional card counting system like those used by card counters at Black Jack tables in Vegas. One of those systems (which we are ironically not allowed to link to here) would be totally useless in Malifaux...because they are based on the rules of black jack, in which every face card has a value of 10. Additionally, they generally take into account that with a higher concentration of 10s, the dealer is more likely to bust while the player is more likely to hit a natural black jack which usually pays off 3:2. It doesn't matter if you hit a 21 in Malifaux, there is no dealer to bust, and factoring in the payout...well...

And, finally, since the outcome of *most* any flip in Malifaux is the result of a comparative score between two decks, the only way to make a count effective enough to be worth using would be to keep a count of both decks and base your decision on the difference between those two counts. Which is entirely possible, but you'll need to make up your own system.

[Mike3838]

Exactly Lalochezia, any standard system isn't going to cut it as your target number is constantly moving.

Kael, you'll notice I did concede that taking mental note of what useful (or high) cards have been flipped would be useful information. But not *that* useful. Certainly you wouldn't be in a position to work out relative probabilities mid game (unless you happen to be Rain Man) so the best you could hope for would be a general gut feel that your deck is slightly above or below average.

In a simple game like blackjack that gut feeling can be useful because of the repetition, but in Malifaux too many things can happen outside of what's going on with your deck that you can't hope to monitor or control. Your "defensive stance and move to better ground" isn't going to help you much when Lilith Transpositions you next to her and cheats and Soulstones a greatsword attack on you next activation. If she kills you, you'd have been better taking your 33% chance.

Mike

[Kael Hate]

Apologies to Mike If I misinterpreted.

Any Blackjack counting system is likely useless. Blackjack systems are too involved because casinos use 5+ decks over a longer time where Malifaux is 1 deck on the short.

As for needing to be Rainman I'd Disagree. The Average of a deck is 7. Anyone with Highschool maths can workout if the average of cards in his discard is higher or lower than 7. If you can get that far you should be able to calculate percentages but I'm not going to tell you the formulae for that.

[Krimsonscythe]

Don't know if anyone's seen the movie, "Diner" but there's a great scene where the husband who is a serious music-file goes off on his wife for leaving a couple of records (you know, when music used to be on vinyl) out of order.

He goes ballistic, yelling about how everything is arranged by date, era, genre etc... etc...

Finally he shuts up and his wife looks at him and simply replies, "I just wanted to listen yo the music."

That's how I feel about all this math hammering. Way too much nickel and dimeing that just takes away from the more fun aspects of the game, for me.

I just want to play the game....

I want to tell some stories with my miniatures.And yes, I want to win but not if its work...

Eric J

[nilus]

As for needing to be Rainman I'd Disagree. The Average of a deck is 7. Anyone with Highschool maths can workout if the average of cards in his discard is higher or lower than 7. If you can get that far you should be able to calculate percentages but I'm not going to tell you the formulae for that.

Honestly try it. You have two decks to worry about plus the fact that a lot of times you need to worry about suits and not just numbers. In the end all you are gonna do is slow down your game and irritate your opponent. I doubt you will see any game play benefit from it.

[JayBarlekamp]

Honestly try it. You have two decks to worry about plus the fact that a lot of times you need to worry about suits and not just numbers. In the end all you are gonna do is slow down your game and irritate your opponent. I doubt you will see any game play benefit from it.

This +1

Also, is getting an edge really all that important? This is just a game after all.

[Kael Hate]

Honestly try it. You have two decks to worry about plus the fact that a lot of times you need to worry about suits and not just numbers. In the end all you are gonna do is slow down your game and irritate your opponent. I doubt you will see any game play benefit from it.

I already do. It feels natural to me.

I would guess that I calculate 2-3 weights every activation.

There is time both in your activation and the opponents activation to calculate these. In lateral to this you should have already seen the action of your opponents direction and play and your counter strategy since this was already pre-determined at the point of deployment. I've never been called slow to play, and at most if I have to adjust to an opponents tactical change I try to keep it under 2 min. Probably waste most of our time discussing rules.

Anyhow

I guess its worth it to me.

It sounds like its not for you.

The Poll seems to agree that its not worth it.