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Francois, infinite trigger?


Red Moon Head

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Hey guys, yet another question! Sorry :/

I just want to check that this is legal before heading to a tourny this weekend as it seemed.... well.... bloody horendous!

Playing against Von Schill 45ss I was using gremlins.

Basically after the turn 1 gremlin factory I had more than enough to out activate and be ready for turn 2 turf war and protect territory (also deliver a message).

Turn two the other guy moved up a lot of his crew (still outside of shooting range). However I activated Somer and did "Do it like dis" and applied crows. Then Lenny tossed Francois (with dirty cheat) forward so he was in shooting range of most of the guys crew and still in the 8" of "do it like dis".

Long story short Francois railed most of the enemy crew in 1 turn with his reckless, (0) action and then getting automatic crows. Dropping a strongarm and von schill in one activation and still having 1ap left (I had a lot of cards in my hand thanks to somer).

Is his trigger meant to be infinite? Was it a "legal" move? I admittedly felt a little unclean after it. But boy it was pretty funny rapid firing and cheating to heal myself each time.

He was on less than half wounds by the end ofc but I cant help but think if i had a lure ability to pull him back in after (trixie for example) that it would be even worse.
 

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This one looks ugly but Francois needs to hit and damage every time to have this going. With 2/3/4 damage spread a single SS prevention will most likely stop the loop if you target an SS user. So you simply can't kill (or even seriously harm) the Armor +1 Von Schill with this against a decent opponent with 1-2 SS in the bag. Still, even with the opponent's "assistance" you must have had blatant luck with your cards to kill two so tough models with a single AP each. Good play on your part nevertheless.

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Csonti,

 

Som'er's Encouragement upgrade and Do it like Dis! action goes a very long way to making sure he hits with the required trigger prior to needing to cheat. Add in Francois' own Showdown action and he is flipping at :+fate :+fate on the attack prior to cheating. As pointed out by the origianl poster. Som'er also does a fair job of both denying an opponent Control Cards to Cheat with and building his own hand to cheat from Bigger Hat Than You and Survival of the Fittest.

 

Damage Prevention might cause an issue however [b}Armor really isn't as it cant reduce damage below a minimum of 1 (on its own), Even tough old VonSchill will generally need to flip well on Damage Prevention to break the cycle. At least until Francois spends another AP on another round of shooting. And then decides to use Reckless for a third attempt. Eventually SS run out. Damage Prevention also cant be cheated while Francois' damage flips can.

 

The real limitation to this trigger (at least in a Som'er crew) is as Rgarbonzo points out, the damage that Francois is willing to take to keep it all going (which can be mitigated a bit by Dirty Cheater or Damage Prevention).

 

Potent for sure but once it has been seen a few times Francois becomes target number one whenever he is on the table.

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Damage Prevention might cause an issue however [b}Armor really isn't as it cant reduce damage below a minimum of 1 (on its own), Even tough old VonSchill will generally need to flip well on Damage Prevention to break the cycle. At least until Francois spends another AP on another round of shooting. And then decides to use Reckless for a third attempt. Eventually SS run out. Damage Prevention also cant be cheated while Francois' damage flips can.

 

 

Actually, Armor +1 does matter a lot when on an SS user. With 2/3/4 and Sh5 vs Df6 the weak damage is very likely. And in that case Armor reduce it to 1 that can be (almost) automatically prevented. So in reality VS doesn't "need to flip well on Damage Prevention" at all to stop the loop. In the example he was killed by a single Ap which is very close to impossible with proper play.

 

Versus the Strongarm the damage is altered to 1/1/2 due to Armor +2 so it needs about 8-10 consecutive hits to finish one with a single Ap that was the case in the OP. That is why I said this must be a very lucky game so people should not start to bash this combo as overpowered.

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You have to use Reckless at the start of the Activation, you can't wait until you know how your other Actions turned out.

 

Poor wording in the post. Mainly emphasizing that this combo can be used more than once per activation making it much more lethal.

 

Actually, Armor +1 does matter a lot when on an SS user. With 2/3/4 and Sh5 vs Df6 the weak damage is very likely. And in that case Armor reduce it to 1 that can be (almost) automatically prevented. So in reality VS doesn't "need to flip well on Damage Prevention" at all to stop the loop. In the example he was killed by a single Ap which is very close to impossible with proper play.

 

Versus the Strongarm the damage is altered to 1/1/2 due to Armor +2 so it needs about 8-10 consecutive hits to finish one with a single Ap that was the case in the OP. That is why I said this must be a very lucky game so people should not start to bash this combo as overpowered.

 

Sh 5 vs Df 6 when flipping strait would generally be at a disadvantage but when flipping at :+fate :+fate on the hit is much less so. The odds of getting to a cheatable damage flip are much higher. Now a SS user could spend a SS to enhance its Defense Duel and then another for the Damage Prevention flip to increase the chance of breaking the chain by imposing that :-fate damage flip but that is 2 SS for each AP that Francois dedicates to this. Across three AP most of the Cache is gone. I would consider that a fair trade. Dont get me wrong VS is better equipped to stopping this (Ramos is better due to higher Armor) but not impervious to it. Forcing SS user's to burn stones quickly or store them in case of something like this is a great method of neutering their advantage.

 

Against the Strong Arm Suit (or any model without access to Damage Prevention) 8-10 successful strikes from one AP isn't that far out of reach. Sh5 vs Df 5 is even flipping but advantage goes to the attacker since ties still hit and Armor cant reduce the damage below 1 on its own. Much like last edition with gremlin's it isn't always about quality of hit but quantity.

 

Welding this "tool" against non-SS users is where it will make its greatest impact though.

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Sh 5 vs Df 6 when flipping strait would generally be at a disadvantage but when flipping at  :+fate :+fate on the hit is much less so. The odds of getting to a cheatable damage flip are much higher. Now a SS user could spend a SS to enhance its Defense Duel and then another for the Damage Prevention flip to increase the chance of breaking the chain by imposing that :-fate damage flip but that is 2 SS for each AP that Francois dedicates to this. Across three AP most of the Cache is gone. I would consider that a fair trade. Dont get me wrong VS is better equipped to stopping this (Ramos is better due to higher Armor) but not impervious to it. Forcing SS user's to burn stones quickly or store them in case of something like this is a great method of neutering their advantage.

 

Against the Strong Arm Suit (or any model without access to Damage Prevention) 8-10 successful strikes from one AP isn't that far out of reach. Sh5 vs Df 5 is even flipping but advantage goes to the attacker since ties still hit and Armor cant reduce the damage below 1 on its own. Much like last edition with gremlin's it isn't always about quality of hit but quantity.

 

Welding this "tool" against non-SS users is where it will make its greatest impact though.

I think you are exaggerating the  :+fate Francois will have. Showdown cost a card to get  :+fate , Rock to the Head costs 1 wound to get  :+fate , with loose trigger also costing 1 wound. He can trade a card for a wound with Dirty Cheater once per flip. That is a lot of cards and while Som'er can draw some extra cards, having :+fate  :+fate on the 8-10 strikes to kill a Strongarm seems rather optimistic to me.

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The example with :+fate :+fate was for VonSchill or any model with higher Df, he doesn't really need :+fate :+fate to hit the Strongarm suit as it is an even flip and ties go to the attacker. Francois also has access to SS should he need them instead of either Showdown or Encouragement. This gives Francois several reliable options for improving his chances to hit (using any of three different resources) prior to having to cheat. He can also have 3 chances at this chain. And as you point out, Som'er can also stack his control hand via Get your Bro and also prevent an opponent from being able to cheat by dumping theirs. This is before considering other tools the Gremlin's have such as the Slop Hauler reducing Df of the target.

 

If the player wants to hit it is likely going to happen, the stumbling blocks for this chain are in Damage Prevention, the Black Joker showing up (not always assured, especially if a player draws it into their control hand) and inexperience with some of the subtler Som'er tactics such as Deck Shaping.

 

I dont consider this a broken combo due to requiring some setup, fore thought and will typically leave Francois in a delicate state but it is a potent one that will catch a lot of players off guard and seem dominating.

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Yeah, I also think you overvalue all the possible buffs without considering their resource requirement. On the other hand you doesn't count in some easy defensive measures. Like positioning yourself behind soft or even better hard cover.

 

Besides that your assumption that Sh5 vs Df5 is an easy win for the attacker is not backed by mathematical facts. Winning this with a straight flip on both sides is something like 53-54% chance with even spread decks. Doing this twice in a row is less than 30%. So no, you can't do that reliably for several hits unless you have tons of luck.

 

The statement that against Df6 the odds are fine to get a cheatable damage flip when you have some  :+fate on the Attack is more than questionable. Let's say you were super lucky and got a 13 on the attack. In that case VS still has more than 50% chance to stay on the non-cheatable damage flip range with a 7 or better card flipped from the deck. And this is the best case scenario for the attacker. Based on some rough estimation I would say a model with Df6 and straight flip gets 70+% chance to not suffer a cheatable damage flip against an Sh5 attack with :+fate  :+fate. And for those 30-%, you will have to waste only some middle cards to keep it safe. In case of a single  :+fate on the Attack it is close to 80% for the defender.

Anyway this combo still has some very nasty potential against non-SS user targets with very low Df stat preferably without Armor. For example it is quite possible to shoot a Teddy off the table for the cost of a single Ap and some cards/wounds.

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Yeah, I also think you overvalue all the possible buffs without considering their resource requirement. On the other hand you doesn't count in some easy defensive measures. Like positioning yourself behind soft or even better hard cover.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this.

 

I account for the Resource Requirements however also consider that Francois has a much larger pool to pull from, being able to exchange Wounds, Control Cards or Soul Stones to achieve the same effect reducing the load on any one and aiding in keeping the chain going. It is definitely not "Infinite".

 

Soft and Hard cover could pose an issue to less mobile crews however the example given by the OP mitigated this possibility with out of activation positioning via Lenny's throw. Gremlin's also dont usually struggle with getting around terrain that provides cover especially with a piglet or two to chain Truffles ("Pig ladders" are still viable in this edition of the game).

 

 

Besides that your assumption that Sh5 vs Df5 is an easy win for the attacker is not backed by mathematical facts. Winning this with a straight flip on both sides is something like 53-54% chance with even spread decks. Doing this twice in a row is less than 30%. So no, you can't do that reliably for several hits unless you have tons of luck.

I didnt say "Easy Win", I said that the advantage belongs to the attacker due to ties going his way. You are also assuming an "even spread deck" which Som'er doesn't need to have (hence why I included the blurb about Deck Shaping). Som'er can skew his deck and the crew can cycle the deck much easier than most crews in the game (which greatly effects the math).

 

I disagree with the notion that replicating a second success is only 30% (especially with Som'er being able to provide the required suit every time) but dont feel like doing the math so will just agree to disagree.

 

 

Anyway this combo still has some very nasty potential against non-SS user targets with very low Df stat preferably without Armor. For example it is quite possible to shoot a Teddy off the table for the cost of a single Ap and some cards/wounds.

Finally we agree!

 

As Df goes up it becomes more difficult to kill a model with only 1 AP but with application of the more advanced Som'er Tactics (and typical Gremlin shenanigans) still doable, more so if a Slop Hauler is around to reduce the Df to 4.

 

Though you'll likely disagree I still contend that with "set up" (Deck Shaping, Deck Cycling, out of activation positioning, Defense reduction of the target, resource options for duel enhancement, denial of Control Cards for the target) the odds favor Francois more than they do the intended target. The OP's example show that fairly well.

 

Luck as always will play a role but Gremlin's mitigate it better than most (especially Som'er).

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I disagree with the notion that replicating a second success is only 30% (especially with Som'er being able to provide the required suit every time) but dont feel like doing the math so will just agree to disagree.

I'm pretty sure he meant that it was less than 30% for both to succeed, not that the second one specifically had a 30% success chance. Which is true since you'll have to multiply the chances of all events to know the total chance. I.e. it's 50% to flip one head, 25% to flip two heads in a row, 12.5% to flip three heads in a row, etc.

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Oh I get what he was saying and still disagree. The math isn't as simple as a sequence of coin flips or even die rolls. All of those reset to a 0 state for each new "duel". Card math is much, much more complicated. Even before considering differences in stat value, ties going to the attacker, deck shaping, deck cycling, control hands and variable draws ( :+fate or :-fate).

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Oh I get what he was saying and still disagree. The math isn't as simple as a sequence of coin flips or even die rolls. All of those reset to a 0 state for each new "duel". Card math is much, much more complicated.

(Heck, my forum handle compels me to comment)

Yes, it is very complicated but it can be abstracted to a pretty good approximation rather easily still. It will likely be off a couple of percentage units but that still gives you good enough an estimate to form decisions.

Even before considering differences in stat value, ties going to the attacker,

Csonti did take these into account.

deck shaping, deck cycling,

These don't have a very big effect unless I'm missing something huge.

control hands

This is the big one, agreed.

and variable draws ( :+fate or :-fate).

A :+fate is approximately +2 to a stat if your stats are somewhat close to another to begin with (i.e., not Ml7 vs Df3). Without cheating, naturally.
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These don't have a very big effect unless I'm missing something huge.

You might be.

 

Som'er can shape his deck to skew the available values via additional card draws and intelligent discards. For example (purely hypothetical to emphasize the best potential) Som'er draws 6 Control Cards on turn 1. Assume mostly low cards. Player decides to spam Get Y'er Bro and has the 6 weakened Bayou Gremlin's uses Encouragement to buff their duels against each other while within range of Survival of the Fittest assuring that virtually any successful hit will kill them. Som'er draws 12 additional control cards. Assume (again to emphasize the max potential) more primarily low cards. At the beginning of turn 2, the Som'er player shuffles his discard pile and then discards all the primarily low value control cards (assume 18 to emphasize potential) and Draws 6 fresh ones. Those 18 primarily low cards are not in the deck until it has cycled. The crews potential to draw high cards is now much higher than his opponents (since the low value cards are out of the potential draw pool). As a best case example (read as purely hypothetical to emphasize the maximum potential), assume the Som'er player drew nothing but low cards (Black Joker and values 1-6) with all 24 (6 initial Control Cards plus 12 from Survival of the Fittest plus 6 more Control Cards after the discard phase next turn) of those card draws. There wouldn't be a single card of "weak" value in the remaining 30 card deck (the lowest card that could be drawn would be a single 6) until it cycled.

 

Deck Cycling is also a potent tool as most crews will struggle to shuffle the deck even once during a typical turn (meaning they only get one chance at each card), Gremlin's can turn the deck two or three times in the conduct of their turn (Francois with this "trick" can move thru a majority of the deck by himself). When you cycle the deck, the pool of available cards refreshes back to an almost "0 state". The Gremlin crew gets another chance at the Red Joker and all those high value cards that were previously used. The low cards also rotate back in, however any that Som'er has in his control hand are still omitted from the potential draw pool skewing the results again (though at a diminished return).

 

While the maximum is not the most likely scenario it was used to emphasize the potential of the tactic. Even without the maximum these things can cause tremendous skewing in the decks potential. A Som'er crew can mitigate "luck" (skew results of draws) much easier than a crew that can't do these things even before considering other tools available to them (such as Som'er's Bigger Hat Than You removing the ability of the opponent to Cheat at all). These are more advanced tactics of the game (often neglected) and some that had a lot of people crying about Som'er's "brokenness" near the end of last edition. This is the reason I have never liked Get Y'er Bro being used as a Card Draw mechanic.

 

Though you could consider it "resource intensive" these are things that dont actually require much effort and the pay off can be dominating. It also doesn't require anything special that isn't likely to be in a typical Som'er crew any way.

 

I would say at this point though we have moved significantly beyond the scope of the thread and into the realm of academia.

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Whilst you scenario is possible, it is quite unlikely to be anywhere near that effective. And even then to allow Francois 1 turn of extreme trigger use you have spent an entire master activation and 9 ss of purcahsed models. And Francois is going to be potentailly burning through your deck pretty quickly. (Positive flips will still increase your average to hit value. With out them, there is a good chance when he does hit that 6, you opponent will be able to cheat to make you miss.

It also here works against the dirty cheater here as you will be losing wounds and not cheating to heal (even with your shaped deck, you are looking at only averaging a flip 4 higher than your opponents, meaning you'd need to be targetting models with a df 2 lower than your Sh to be looking at a straight flip on average.

 

Coversely deck shaping and Deck cycling, whilst both useful and powerful tools, are a little at odds. When you have shaped your deck, you want to try not to cycle it, as you then loose the shaping.  

 

And everything you do before Farncois on that turn is reducing the deck shaping effect, as you're getting much closer to deck cyling.

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I'm not sure that the deck shaping technique described is efficient. The extreme version that you described ate up 3AP from your Master and 18SS worth of your own models which is certainly excessive. But if you do it half-baked, it won't have a big effect, which was kinda my point. In order to meaningfully affect your deck distribution, you need to prune quite a lot of cards.

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Whilst you scenario is possible, it is quite unlikely to be anywhere near that effective.

I seem to recall mentioning several times in that post that it will not be that effective and was being used to emphasize the potential, however the tactic has several years of proof to showcase its effectiveness. Som'er was capable of this last edition as well.

 

Even a slight skew of the deck is sufficient to effect the results.

 

And even then to allow Francois 1 turn of extreme trigger use you have spent an entire master activation and 9 ss of purcahsed models. And Francois is going to be potentailly burning through your deck pretty quickly. (Positive flips will still increase your average to hit value. With out them, there is a good chance when he does hit that 6, you opponent will be able to cheat to make you miss.

A Master who is doing exactly what he is designed to do. Som'er is a Summoner and a Crew Support Master. His activation is doing exactly what you want him to do, summon Bayou Gremlin's and provide support. Additionally, consider that Som'er can still be effective at supporting the rest of the crew and moving about the board thanks to his little friends the Giant Skeeters and Piglets. Lastly, this is if your opponent is actively choosing not to kill your Bayou Gremlin's while within the range of Survival of the Fittest.

 

It really isn't that intensive of an endeavor when the pay off can be absolutely huge.

 

Also noticed the blurb about the target being able to "Cheat". Som'er has that covered with Bigger Hat than You.

 

 

It also here works against the dirty cheater here as you will be losing wounds and not cheating to heal (even with your shaped deck, you are looking at only averaging a flip 4 higher than your opponents, meaning you'd need to be targetting models with a df 2 lower than your Sh to be looking at a straight flip on average.

Francois has plenty of Wounds to keep this going and he doesn't care how well he hits only that he hit and causes at least 1 Damage each time (Black Joker and Damage Prevention are the only methods of reducing it below 1). He can trigger this 8-9 times on his own before needing to heal. He can also attach the Quality Mash Liquor upgrade to heal himself with one of those 3 AP he has access to.

 

 

Coversely deck shaping and Deck cycling, whilst both useful and powerful tools, are a little at odds. When you have shaped your deck, you want to try not to cycle it, as you then loose the shaping.  

 

And everything you do before Farncois on that turn is reducing the deck shaping effect, as you're getting much closer to deck cyling.

 

Deck Shaping and Cycling would normally be a bit at odds with each other however in this case not as much as you would expect. Som'er can still effect the reshuffled deck (like any player can) during the turn via the control hand (which Som'er can rebuild during the turn even after forcing both players to dump their control hands).

 

I do agree that Activation order is a key to this, but Som'er has taught me over the years that it is almost always true. One of the reasons I say he tends to have a high learning curve.

 

Again this tactic doesn't hinge on hitting well only hitting and producing at least 1 damage.

 

I'm not sure that the deck shaping technique described is efficient. The extreme version that you described ate up 3AP from your Master and 18SS worth of your own models which is certainly excessive. But if you do it half-baked, it won't have a big effect, which was kinda my point. In order to meaningfully affect your deck distribution, you need to prune quite a lot of cards.

3 AP that Som'er while working the Summon Factory was going to use exactly that way anyhow and only 9 SS worth of actually hired models (the others are summoned). It is only really "excessive" if it doesn't produce greater results than the effort. Killing several key models in your opponents crew in one go would usually be a greater result than the effort required to pull it off.

 

I agree this is not an all the time, every turn "I win Button" it is yet another potent tool in the Som'er arsenal that when welded skillfully can put you significantly down the path to victory.

 

We will have to agree to disagree about the amount of "pruning" that must be done to affect the deck distribution. 12 Cards is quite a swing  in deck potential regardless of value drawn.

 

I will also reiterate that this is not a "new" interaction it has been available for a few years now (though it was a bit more difficult last edition since Som'er couldn't provide the required suit without Ophelia).

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I ran some tests.

I drew a hand of 18 cards and then I set the pruning threshold to 7 (meaning pruning away cards lower than seven). Then I shuffled the pruned deck and flipped some duels. I did this ten million times.

Pruning a deck for 18 cards vs pruning it with 6 (the usual hand size) gives you an edge on duels that is a bit less than +1 to the relevant stat. Pruning it for a massive 50 cards results in about +3 to the stat.

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Unfortunately no, deck-based probability calculations are pure murder. I simply made a small Java program from scratch. I had done such a thing (making and shuffling the deck, flipping system and performing duels) during the beta testing when people had weird ideas about the effects of :+fate and it took about fifteen minutes during a coffee break to add the pruning system to it.

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