Malifaux, #5 minis game in the industry

[pixelgeek]

Its a good thing you're already playing the game then isn't it?

I was making a general comment and not a personal one. The ICv2 top five lists have a reputation for being inaccurate. I suspect that is why few companies promote them.

[TheRiddler]

I was making a general comment and not a personal one. The ICv2 top five lists have a reputation for being inaccurate. I suspect that is why few companies promote them.

Surely as long as their methods are consistent, it proves that Wyrd is growing?

[ukrocky]

Warmachine is above fantasy? o.O

[pixelgeek]

Surely as long as their methods are consistent, it proves that Wyrd is growing?

Without knowing what their methods are you could assume that but it would be nice to not have to make assumptions.

The numbers that have been posted in TGN's polls have had Malifaux in fifth place pretty consistent for the last six months.

But the problem with a top five list with no additional details is that you can't tell why something is now #5 when it wasn't previously.

For the polls that TGN has run the top six games have been the same pretty much since they started doing the polls and numbers 6 through ten have also been pretty much the same but they move around every month.

You can see the results for April 2011 on the site now.

But the results there for April and December have the top six games (in terms of people playing) as the exact same and in the exact same order.

So ICv2's results, without any sort of additional details, are difficult to use for anything other than casual discussion. Is Malifaux in fifth place because they removed a title? Is there difference between 5th and 6th really small? What has the difference between 5th and 6th place been historically?

ICv2 also doesn't seem to offer any sort of discussion of their results either.

Now as I said earlier I think it is a good result for Malifaux and any press that shows the game being more popular is great but my original interest in the results for this month were actually just that Dark Heavens, the defunct Reaper wargame from years ago, wasn't in fifth place anymore.

[pixelgeek]

Warmachine is above fantasy? o.O

Yup. Warhammer Fantasy isn't a big seller. Not at the same size that 40K is and certainly nowhere near as popular as Warmachine.

[Buhallin]

So ICv2's results, without any sort of additional details, are difficult to use for anything other than casual discussion.

If the ICv2 results are only worth casual discussion, then the TTGN numbers are utterly worthless.

At least the ICv2 numbers seem to have SOME shred of relation to actual sales that may be going on. The TTGN methodology is beyond meaningless - the voluntary, nonselective sample, combined with the utter lack of anything resembling resolution in the responses makes it a useless fluff piece. Holding it up to make a point - any point - while trying to downplay the ICv2 numbers is very, very odd.

Not that you're entirely wrong about the lack of deep information in the ICv2 report, but if you're going to compare an industry news site that gets info from distributors and shops to a voluntary web poll that equates $2 with $200 in spending, you're pretty much killing your own point, and coming off largely as a naysayer for the point of it.

[ukrocky]

Based on the 2010 tourney scene when I played both WFB and WM (Before it went to 8th ed) I would have said WFB was much bigger than WM...

[edonil]

Based on the 2010 tourney scene when I played both WFB and WM (Before it went to 8th ed) I would have said WFB was much bigger than WM...

It might be, but 8th edition seems to have really killed that game, and beyond that more people are picking up Warmachine new so there's more sales there, most people have nothing new to buy for Warhammer Fantasy.

[pixelgeek]

The TTGN methodology is beyond meaningless - the voluntary, nonselective sample, combined with the utter lack of anything resembling resolution in the responses makes it a useless fluff piece.

What makes you think that the ICv2 aren't a "voluntary, nonselective sample"? My understanding is that they call distributors and shops and ask them if they want to participate and then ask them for their top sellers for the quarter.

Holding it up to make a point - any point - while trying to downplay the ICv2 numbers is very, very odd.

Well the issue is that there are no numbers and there is no transparency about the methods used to collect the figures.

You have issues with how TGN gets its data but at least you know how TGN gets its data and you can make a choice about whether you want to put any faith in those numbers based on that.

The ICv2 data is simply a list with no numerical values, no discussion and no transparency.

The reason I have a problem with their data is that they don't really appear to have a clue about the market. For some time they used to routinely have "Dark Heavens" in their top five list for this category and I emailed them to ask why Reaper's RPG range was included and they told me it wasn't the RPG range but Reaper's old Dark Heaven fantasy rules.

They didn't know the market enough to know the game had been discontinued and didn't seem to care that they had been, for years, reporting a "game" that no longer existed and conflating it with an RPG miniature range.

Not that you're entirely wrong about the lack of deep information in the ICv2 report, but if you're going to compare an industry news site that gets info from distributors and shops to a voluntary web poll that equates $2 with $200 in spending, you're pretty much killing your own point, and coming off largely as a naysayer for the point of it.

I'm not sure what the value of a purchase has to any poll. and I think that you're making (or appear to be making) some assumptions about how ICv2 collects their data. I don't think its any more rigorous than what TGN does.

And I don't think I am naysaying. I've said several times that I think this is good news for Wyrd and Malifaux. Its just not a very reputable list (Not that the industry has (m)any to be honest.) and I don't know what to really make of this result without any more data from them.

Edited June 6, 2011 by pixelgeek

[Guy in Suit]

Wow some really basic #statsclassfail going on here.

No matter how you slice it, short of fraud, ICv2's numbers are more objective than TGN's.

I wouldn't call the ICv2 results scientific, but as good as any poll you'd see quoted on CNN.

TGN's web-based-whatever poll is definitely not in the same league and to conflate them is folly.

[alienated one]

I'm glad I play 3 of the top 5 games. Congrats to Wyrd!

[Buhallin]

My understanding is that they call distributors and shops and ask them if they want to participate and then ask them for their top sellers for the quarter.

...

You have issues with how TGN gets its data but at least you know how TGN gets its data and you can make a choice about whether you want to put any faith in those numbers based on that.

Err.... Sounds like you've got a pretty decent idea how ICv2 gets their numbers? And when you're trying to do something statistical, calling your sample up and asking them if they want to participate is exactly how they do it. So far, everything you've described sounds like a pretty standard approach to analysis.

The ICv2 data is simply a list with no numerical values, no discussion and no transparency.

This is certainly true, but apart from your personal dislike of what they consider an acceptable game for the list, there really isn't anything to point to their methodologies being flawed.

[pixelgeek]

No matter how you slice it, short of fraud, ICv2's numbers are more objective than TGN's.

TGN's poll doesn't pretend to be anything other than it is. A random sampling of actual gamers asking them what they played and bought in the preceding month. I'm not sure how a poll of any type is going to be "objective" though. Did you mean something else?

Over the seven months that it has been run the gaming numbers have been pretty consistent for the top ten games and Malifaux has been in the top five or top six each month.

Don't take my comments about ICv2's polls to think that I am somehow calling these new results into question. As I said in my first or second comment in this thread, the actual numbers are irrelevant and the main point is that the Malifaux name is going to now get in front of more eyeballs than it might have last quarter.

Edited June 6, 2011 by pixelgeek

[pixelgeek]

Err.... Sounds like you've got a pretty decent idea how ICv2 gets their numbers?

Nothing official and some of it is based on comments and critiques I have heard from shop owners, some Game Industry forum members and one person at a distributor.

I don't know if that is how they do their results any more but clearly they have changed something in their polling methods since Malifaux is appearing on the list when it wasn't previously and it should have been.

This is certainly true, but apart from your personal dislike of what they consider an acceptable game for the list,

If you are going to do a poll at least make the results make sense. It is nonsensical to have a game that isn't even published any more as part of your results. Dark Havens wasn't a legitimate result and yet it appeared consistently for some time.

You can see that for yourself

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/13174.html

http://www.icv2.com/articles/home/12294.html

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/17572.html

At no point during the times covered by these results did Reaper still produce the Dark Haven rules. They had already moved on to producing Warlord, producing a new range for the Warlord game and also moved their Dark Haven range into an RPG focused miniature range.

Dark Haven was released in 1998 and was one of the first rule sets that Reaper produced. But it was not in publication in any of the years covered by the links above.

Until this latest Q1 report their results made no sense at all and so, yes, I would call them into question. These new results, that include Malifaux, are the first time in three years I have actually paid any attention to the results and I made sure that there was a post to them on TGN to help promote that and promote Malifaux.

there really isn't anything to point to their methodologies being flawed.

If I run a poll and my fifth place result isn't actually a valid entrant into the list then I think that you do have to call the methodology of the poll into question. You can't have a poll asking people their favourite type of dog and have the fifth place result be a Bald Eagle and not wonder what went wrong :-)

[muribundi]

No matter how they got their figures , this is free press for Wyrd and will show some gamers who are on the fence about malifaux that the company is growing stronger , and in no danger of discontinuing the game.

[Guy in Suit]

[ispep]

If they simply gather information from stores and distributors, it is no wonder Dark Haven showed up on the list. If their poll was "what are your sales figures for the different miniature lines you carry" of course Reaper will make that list.

It is very possible that they don't ask for specific miniature games. Its also a possibility that they just request a quarterly report, and don't look at anything than whether its little metal/plastic men or not.

Another important thing that needs to be considered is ~when~ the reports are compiled, and just how much of the quarter they look at. And if it is dollar figures or unit sales. If British Miniatures Company releases a very popular 60 dollar model that everyone needs 3 of, and the other guys have a couple of $13 dollar models that a player will only need one of, clearly British Miniature Company is going to come out on top.

Don't forget about biased retailers reporting inflated sales of certain lines they prefer, regional bias towards some games, and who knows what other anomalies may appear. The poll is good for what it is, a broad, general, non-exact poll of assorted parties with their own interests at stake. It would be nice if there was a unbiased and open poll which took into consideration sales in dollars, units sold, and whether or not people actually played the game.

[Buhallin]

If I run a poll and my fifth place result isn't actually a valid entrant into the list then I think that you do have to call the methodology of the poll into question. You can't have a poll asking people their favourite type of dog and have the fifth place result be a Bald Eagle and not wonder what went wrong :-)

Well, what if I'm having a poll asking people what their favorite shark is, and my fifth place is a manta ray?

Just because you consider it to be invalid doesn't mean it is. It was a tabletop game at some point. The minis are still being sold, and it's basically impossible to tell what use they're being put to - plenty of old games out there still being played even though they're out of print - so they leave it in. Doesn't seem terribly unreasonable to me. Certainly not something that crosses into incompetence of a sort to completely invalidate anything they put forward.

[Math Mathonwy]

Without knowing what their methods are you could assume that but it would be nice to not have to make assumptions.

The numbers that have been posted in TGN's polls have had Malifaux in fifth place pretty consistent for the last six months.

But the problem with a top five list with no additional details is that you can't tell why something is now #5 when it wasn't previously.

For the polls that TGN has run the top six games have been the same pretty much since they started doing the polls and numbers 6 through ten have also been pretty much the same but they move around every month.

I would say that TGN favours non-GW gamers rather heavily simply due to the nature of the site. A lot (most?) GW-gamers only play GW games and therefore sites like TGN aren't of much interest to them which skews the results rather dramatically.

Also, since it's in English, a lot of French and Spanish gamers probably aren't reading it which in turn affects the numbers when it comes to Infinity, Nemesis and the French games (which tend to be in turmoil right now, so wouldn't rank all that high regardless).

Now as I said earlier I think it is a good result for Malifaux and any press that shows the game being more popular is great but my original interest in the results for this month were actually just that Dark Heavens, the defunct Reaper wargame from years ago, wasn't in fifth place anymore.

Aye, I had noticed the same thing. I kinda supposed that they put all Reaper sales under Dark Haven for some inexplicable reason but since they differentiate between WM and Hordes, it seems really nonsensical and doesn't raise my confidence in the numbers.

Yup. Warhammer Fantasy isn't a big seller. Not at the same size that 40K is and certainly nowhere near as popular as Warmachine.

Are you thinking North America or world wide? As I would be somewhat surprised if what you're saying is true of Europe.

[pixelgeek]

Just because you consider it to be invalid doesn't mean it is. It was a tabletop game at some point.

So to be clear, if you were a store owner and you saw them reporting a 10+ year old out-of-print as the fifth best-selling miniature game for the Q4 2010 period you wouldn't be annoyed or confused when you called your distributor for stock of it and wouldn't question the inclusion?

Or more directly, you don't think that there is something odd with a 10+ year old out-of-print game supposedly selling more figures and rules than Infinity, Malifaux, or any other similar game?

[pixelgeek]

I would say that TGN favours non-GW gamers rather heavily simply due to the nature of the site.

Absolutely. It clearly favours people who don't play GW games since those people don't need to go looking for info about games like Malifaux, Infinity, Eden etc.

Also, since it's in English, a lot of French and Spanish gamers probably aren't reading it which in turn affects the numbers when it comes to Infinity, Nemesis and the French games (which tend to be in turmoil right now, so wouldn't rank all that high regardless).

North America and the UK make up about 75% of the site's traffic. There are also quite a few really great miniature gaming magazines in French, Spanish and German that serve that market as well so if you are in Continental Europe you have a lot of options for news and info in your own language and I think that does indeed lower the number of people that report playing games like Infinity, Nemesis, Eden, etc.

Are you thinking North America or world wide? As I would be somewhat surprised if what you're saying is true of Europe.

North America for certain. One of GW's North American managers told me that they sold more Space Marine products than WFB products. No clue how it sells in Europe but Europe is always a very different market than North America.

[ispep]

So to be clear, if you were a store owner and you saw them reporting a 10+ year old out-of-print as the fifth best-selling miniature game for the Q4 2010 period you wouldn't be annoyed or confused when you called your distributor for stock of it and wouldn't question the inclusion?

Or more directly, you don't think that there is something odd with a 10+ year old out-of-print game supposedly selling more figures and rules than Infinity, Malifaux, or any other similar game?

I would hope that a game store owner would be familiar with Reaper Miniatures and what exactly Dark Haven is. I would also assume that they were just reporting gaming miniature sales, not specific games.

95% of the orders the store I work at includes 2-10 Reaper minis, from restock to special orders to new miniatures. We get Alliances orders 2-3 times a week. Whether there is a current, or even available, rules set is largely irrelevant. People buy Reaper models for gaming, and they buy a lot of them.

[pixelgeek]

Whether there is a current, or even available, rules set is largely irrelevant.

The category is "Non-collectible tabletop miniature game" so yes the rule set is very relevant :-)

[Buhallin]

Or more directly, you don't think that there is something odd with a 10+ year old out-of-print game supposedly selling more figures and rules than Infinity, Malifaux, or any other similar game?

Certainly there is. But there are also perfectly reasonable explanations for why they chose to report it as they did, that don't automatically classify them as useless and clueless about the gaming industry.

And even if you're entirely right, and it shouldn't be in the list at all, that still says nothing about the quality of their methodology. Their numbers could very well be perfectly accurate on how much each line is selling regardless of how they chose to categorize the Dark Heavens line.

[pixelgeek]

And even if you're entirely right, and it shouldn't be in the list at all, that still says nothing about the quality of their methodology.

I'm not sure how you could possibly think that but lets just agree to disagree then