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Triple Tome Disappearing Act requirement and effect question


Matamane

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Yep, eliminates it altogether. Best way to pull it off is if you have a high Tome card in your hand already. Cast the spell, and then cheat in the high tome, then burn a SS and have to hope that you pull another Tome. If you don't pull another Tome, but you do happen to get a mask, just use that one instead, as you'll get your spent SS back at least. ;) Still, if you can manage to bury one of your opponent's key models before they've activated that round, then it's definitely worth it.

I'm kind of irritated that the only way to get more Mannequin pieces is to buy the Performer/Mannequin 2-pack, which then leaves me with an extra Performer that I don't need. :(

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Wait, you can cheat and soulstone on the same spell? I thought it was one or the other.

From page 64 of your rulebook:

Caster Changes Starting Total or Passes.

The caster may use either or both options below, in the order listed, but can use each option only once. A model may choose not to use either option if it doesn’t with to change its total (pass).

• Cheat Fate: The model replaces the Fate

Card with a Control Card played from its

Control Hand.

• Use Soulstones: If the model has the Use

Soulstones ability, it may discard a Soulstone

to flip a second Fate Card and add its value

to the Duel total.

The same holds true for most duels.

Use of a Soulstone does not equal Cheating Fate.

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Yes, I didn't know you could cheat AND use a soulstone until a few weeks ago when I got book two and reread some stuff to get the rules back into my head. I don't know if it's because I got manequin replacement off on my first try (against a Datsue-ba, :D ), but It doesn't seem too hard to do if you flip a high tome and hope for what I think is rougly a fifty fifty chance to get a tome.

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So I actually crunched some numbers on this ability.

Given a fresh deck, a burned card for initiative, and a six card hand:

The casting cost is such that you need at least 6[tomes] to get the spell off at minimum. To hit the trigger you need another tome (read: Ace[Tomes]). Therefore, to get the spell, and the trigger off at a minimum, you'll need to either flip or cheat in at least the 5[tomes], and soulstone out at least the Ace[tomes].

The probability that you flip a 5[tomes] or higher, or that you have a 5[tomes] or higher in your hand to cheat with is about 67%.

Given the fact that Collette has a positive twist to all soulstone flips, the probability that your soulstone flips out a tome is increased above the normal rate (in actuality, the percentage doesn't change due to probability laws. Work with me here, people!)

The probability that the soulstone flip turns up a tome is about 25%.

Combined, the probability of getting these two events in a row comes out to about 16.75%. Which, for such a powerful trigger, is pretty high.

This probability will obviously increase for each card you flip or draw throughout the turn that is NOT a tome. It will decrease every time you flip or draw a card that IS a tome.

In this case, I would recommend not using her ability to sac a ss for two extra cards unless you really need the high initial tome in your hand to guarantee the cheat. The more cards left in your deck, the higher the chance that you'll be flipping a tome when you use the ss.

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The more cards left in your deck, the higher the chance that you'll be flipping a tome when you use the ss.

This doesn't make any sense... Just hold a tome high enought to cheat in your hand count cards. +1 for every non-Tome and -3 for each Tome. When you are at about +6 or higher, go for it - should have about 50% chance.

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It's very simple math, Guy. ~26% of the deck is Tomes (assuming you would choose Tomes for the Red Joker's suit should you flip that). Rounding that off, you have about a 25% chance of flipping a Tome card.

Since we're just running a simulation where we don't know (and thus cannot determine) the result of any card flipped from the deck, we can essentially disregard them (their impact on the final probabilities of this situation are minimal). Since the probability of flipping a card of a certain suit cannot be affected by previous events where the outcome is unknown (i.e. initiative, starting hand, etc.), we can simply say that every time you flip a card you have a 25% chance of it being a tome.

You do however need to accumulate a certain value of Tomes or higher (six). Therefore you must flip any two Tomes with a combined value of 6 or more. (Some more complicated math determines that...) Flipping a 5 or higher is a 67% chance. Flipping the Ace to satisfy the remaining 1 point needed is a 25% chance. multiply the two and you get the 16.75%

In short, I'm not talking counting cards at all. I'm talking about the straight probability of pulling this off on the first flip of any turn.

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