Per the rule Ryu quoted, it doesn't matter since either the attacker or defender is taller than the obscuring effect. Rules as written, VS can see the marionette (who gets cover).
However, it was this type of situation that brought the shadow rule for terrain into being, because really there's no way he should be able to see the marionette in this situation. For me, the intention of the rule in this case should follow the terrain shadow rules so that's how I'd play it.