Fetid Strumpet Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm well aware of the Negative Effect mnemonic reinforcement, however Since I started playing a little more than a year ago I've had Seamus killed on average about once every other game he comes out, often due to a Red Joker flip. Now I'll admit my memory might be being reinforced in the negative by the Red Joker flips, but that is immaterial as the fact remains that he often dies. My other Master's deaths are so: Kirai: 0 Deaths Pandora: 0 Deaths Molly: 1 Death If Seamus' shining trait is how survivable he is, he should be have the lowest death total of the Master's I play, instead he has the highest, by far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calmdown Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Edit- my pc froze while typing this and by the time I posted the debate had quite rightly moved on. What are the odds of that eh? Approximately 0.24789% by my calculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchethead Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 I recognize this adds a slight complexity to the mechanic, but I think Hatchethead is spot on with that suggestion. Very slight! I'd hate to see the RJ changed in any way beyond simply removing the additional flip during a negative twist damage flip. And thanks, Lucid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buhallin Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 You have an 8/45 chance of one of those two attacks hitting a Red Joker - that's 18%. Now lets say some other stuff happened first and 5 cards were flipped, taking the deck down to 40. And lets say Seamus gets hit 3 times. The chance is now 12/40 - 30%. Except... Not all those cards are coming from Hard to Wound. Half of them are - the other half are just the standard way of doing things. So the actual increase from H2W is somewhere around half that - 1 in 6 times that you get three hits on Seamus, HtW2 should make a Red Joker appear. But even then, the numbers aren't the whole story here. That's the problem with Theoryfaux. Events don't happen in isolation. Because 5 out of 6 times, your opponent isn't going to see the Joker, and what happens then? You've just dropped 3 weak shots on Seamus, who gets a chance to respond, heal, etc. You have anywhere from 7-13 cards out of play in a given turn, between your discards, hand, and initiative - we'll call it an average 10, which is about 18%. That's an 18% chance the Red Joker won't be available for a turn AT ALL - which your numbers ignore - which means that you won't even face the risk at all, which reduces your best-case numbers to occurring about 12% of the time. So, slightly over 1 in 10 chance of H2W2 actually making a difference, and that's in your worst-case scenario. <shrug> I'll take that to guarantee you can never cheat damage against him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msgfree Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 :-P:-PSigh, I knew someone would call that. I was trying to keep the post less mathematical so no one had to read even more maths; everyone can see that this doesnt happen if you flip the RJ at another point. Note the number of vagueries in the post and the lack of too much maths. The exact numbers are not relevant because none of the situations above are likely to *specifically* exist. The point was to show that the percentages are not "once in a blue moon", they are "very often". Anyway... I can understand wanting to keep things simple for the sake of those averse to statistics. But you can't half-ass statistics, man! Go big or go home! :-P ---------- Post added at 09:24 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:22 AM ---------- Except... Not all those cards are coming from Hard to Wound. Half of them are - the other half are just the standard way of doing things. So the actual increase from H2W is somewhere around half that - 1 in 6 times that you get three hits on Seamus, HtW2 should make a Red Joker appear. But even then, the numbers aren't the whole story here. That's the problem with Theoryfaux. Events don't happen in isolation. Because 5 out of 6 times, your opponent isn't going to see the Joker, and what happens then? You've just dropped 3 weak shots on Seamus, who gets a chance to respond, heal, etc. You have anywhere from 7-13 cards out of play in a given turn, between your discards, hand, and initiative - we'll call it an average 10, which is about 18%. That's an 18% chance the Red Joker won't be available for a turn AT ALL - which your numbers ignore - which means that you won't even face the risk at all, which reduces your best-case numbers to occurring about 12% of the time. So, slightly over 1 in 10 chance of H2W2 actually making a difference, and that's in your worst-case scenario. <shrug> I'll take that to guarantee you can never cheat damage against him. QFT Preach it Brother! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malandres Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Back to seamus please...... we can start a red joker/black joker thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigkid Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Instinctual and a couple more SS would be enough for me....*wink* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buhallin Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 I dont play Seamus much, but I have likely played him more than most people in this thread. When you play against players who know how to exploit the downside of HtW2, you will see Seamus knocked out by red jokers followed by some simple basic attack very often. More often than once every two games, in fact, in practice. That's not hyperbole speaking, its experience. Its ridiculously easy to exploit HtW2 given that on a turn you choose to focus Seamus, the great majority of the total cards you flip will be flipped for Seamus damage flips. So... About the only thing more often than once every other game would be every game. Hmmm... Well, despite the classic Calmdown "Everyone but me is an ignorant n00b who only plays against incompetent people" argument, I think I'm going to have to call BS here. I'm sure it's just because I only play Seamus in 75% of my games, and I never play against anyone who knows how to exploit the downside of Hard to Wound, but it works fine for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calmdown Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 So how bout that Seamus, he's pretty terrible! When a thread deviates from the topic but the discussion is really good, why be so eager to kill the chat or act like its getting heated etc? Was some good stuff in there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigkid Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Then we're all agreed! Instinctual and a couple more SS it is! Maybe a new hat.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buhallin Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 And there still is a lot of good stuff. But a hyperbolic claim that this happens more than 50% of games, backed up by "I've played more than you" and "Your opponents just don't know how to take advantage of it" condescension doesn't qualify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigkid Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 See, Buhallin wants a new hat for Seamus. A lovely new hat, Instinctual and some nice shiney Soul Stones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buhallin Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 See, Buhallin wants a new hat for Seamus. You can have Seamus' hat when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers!! See, NOW it's getting heated!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRC Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 The point about the maths isnt to show a specific probability of being hit by an RJ. The point is to show that the numbers are very high, and to disprove the previous post with the terribly bad maths I was fully aware of your points about thinning the deck and increasing the odds. I was actually primarily directing my math at the idea that HtW2 is much worse than HtW1. 5.35% is still pretty big. But if you're going to talk about how thinning the deck changes the odds, you also have to account for the turns where the RJ has already been played, and you're pretty much doomed to inflict low damage with every hit. Regardless, I just though some people were overestimating the odds. What I don't like, is how when you're at :-fate or worse your odds of RJ is higher (often much higher) than your odds of severe damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fetid Strumpet Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Some extra stones and changing Live for pain so it is just a range 6 spell with no Gun Icon would go a long way in my opinion. I don't think he'd be competitive with the current crop of masters, but he'd be a heck of a lot more fun to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucidicide Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 If there's a change that is going to be made to Seamus, I think that just giving non-aSeamus something closer to anathema would be helpful. I understand the desire for something like instinctual, etc. However, I feel that any changes to be made should bring him more in line with the idea of him (which was much more likely to work in just Book 1). Basically, make terrifying more meaningful for him. Pandora has a way to make sure things have to take Wp tests because that's her shtick. Seamus should have the same. Even with such a change, the aSeamus is still plenty useful, so it's not treading too much on his territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigkid Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 You can have Seamus' hat when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers!! See, NOW it's getting heated!! Tee hee! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fetid Strumpet Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's not go to Pandora, I play her, but feel she has too many abilities that don't adhere to how Malifaux works in general and is very deserving of a rewrite to bring her more into line with the other design elements of Malifaux. Just as an example I don't like how The Box Opens isn't an action, it just always works. Most game changing abilities of that sort are actions that must be taken so the player must weigh when to activate the model. Activate early to give the crew the benefit of the ability, but then be unable to react as well to when the opponent does, or activate late and be able to have advantage of options, but be unable to provide the buffs or synergy the crew sometimes requires. Seamus' Undead Psychosis is the same way, because it doesn't carry over to the next turn. If Seamus wants to take advantage of the ability he needs to activate earlier than the targets he wants to hit with it, but if h does so he won't be able to react to the changing situations or go for healing if he needs it. Personally I feel that if Pandora deserves to have The Box Opens active at all times then Seamus' Trail of Fear should also be active at all times. Anyways enough of that, Pandora's rules are another issue I'm very passionate about that I should put back in their box for the time being. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucidicide Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's not go to Pandora, I play her, but feel she has too many abilities that don't adhere to how Malifaux works in general and is very deserving of a rewrite to bring her more into line with the other design elements of Malifaux. Just as an example I don't like how The Box Opens isn't an action, it just always works. Most game changing abilities of that sort are actions that must be taken so the player must weigh when to activate the model. Activate early to give the crew the benefit of the ability, but then be unable to react as well to when the opponent does, or activate late and be able to have advantage of options, but be unable to provide the buffs or synergy the crew sometimes requires. Seamus' Undead Psychosis is the same way, because it doesn't carry over to the next turn. If Seamus wants to take advantage of the ability he needs to activate earlier than the targets he wants to hit with it, but if h does so he won't be able to react to the changing situations or go for healing if he needs it. Personally I feel that if Pandora deserves to have The Box Opens active at all times then Seamus' Trail of Fear should also be active at all times. Anyways enough of that, Pandora's rules are another issue I'm very passionate about that I should put back in their box for the time being. Sorry to poke that badger I was more just saying that Pandora is able to change things somewhat so she can work. aSeamus can do this as well, and I don't think a similar ability on normal Seamus would really be an issue. I wasn't really saying Seamus should be like Pandy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fetid Strumpet Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 No, I'm sorry. I'm very passionate about how much I love Malifaux's system, but the few masters that stray I feel a little too far outside the system are issues that I get very heated about. Pandora is one of those issues and I tend to just see her name and then expound. I apologize. Back to Seamus! Live for Pain with no Ranged Icon, thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigkid Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 No, I'm sorry. I'm very passionate about how much I love Malifaux's system, but the few masters that stray I feel a little too far outside the system are issues that I get very heated about. Pandora is one of those issues and I tend to just see her name and then expound. I apologize. Back to Seamus! Live for Pain with no Ranged Icon, thoughts? I wont lie to you, I'd love to see this happen. OK, I'm with you. Live for Pain with no Ranged Icon is a great idea. Don't be thinking you can convince me on the H2W shenanigans mind!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fetid Strumpet Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) Maybe it's just something you need to have happen to you repeatedly, as has happened to me, before it just starts to feel really wrong. If your group doesn't exploit it, or you are just lucky enough it doesn't happen to you very often I can only say that is awesome for you, and I don't mean that in a snarky way. It's happened enough to me to very much frustrate me. As a side note want to know the only common NB models I'm able to kill pretty consistently very easily? Teddy, precisely because of this phenomenon. I love to see Teddy come out on the table, I've had multiple models one round him because I can leverage the low Def and H2W2 so effectively. Actually if you look at him Teddy is designed very much like a resser model. If he was Walk 4 and had a lower Cb and undead instead of construct he'd be pretty indicative of the resser model line. Edited February 17, 2012 by Fetid Strumpet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nilus Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 I agree with adding to his cache. What about making Necrotic Ministration work for when any model is killed or sacrificed? I think that would give him a much need bump against non-living crews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fetid Strumpet Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) Basic Changes that could be made that I'd like to see: Give him a larger Base Cache, or an ability like the Dreamer which gives a SS to the Cache for each Belle you take. Live for Pain needs to have the Ranged Icon removed from it. Necrotic Ministrations should work whenever anything is killed or sacrificed within range. I do in some ways wish that the Face of Death was better than just Terrifying but a larger aura. Mabey if it affected anything susceptible to moral duels, but not exclusively living, or if it operated like Irresistible and you had to test it every action you were inside it, even if you passed it previously, but that might be reaching too far. The above three suggestions would make Seamus MUCH more fun to play in my experience and make him something that might make him a little more competitive, but I doubt that it would push him into Dreamer, Hamelin, Kirai territory. I doubt it will happen though as if Wyrd changed one model to make it more than it is at present they'd have to field off the "Well if you improved that model why not this model!". Underpowered Models don't break a game, they are just disappointing to those who are large fans but wish they could justify bringing them out of the case for more games. Edited February 17, 2012 by Fetid Strumpet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tattyted Posted February 17, 2012 Report Share Posted February 17, 2012 Approximately 0.24789% by my calculations. Thats near enough for me:Confused_Puppet: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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