Holding the Black Joker in your Hand

[Buhallin]

To elaborate a bit on mitigation: SOME mitigation should always be there. You should always be aware of the potential for an action to fail, and how you deal with that. Obviously there are other options (such as holding the joker).

But every mitigation action incurs a cost. Risk management is about balancing probability, impact, and cost. There are rarely exact numbers to attach to any of it that says "This is the right choice", but you can at least isolate the individual pieces.

[Ratty]

In which case I agree totally.

I quite often run Kirai, Jack Daw and Shikome, in which case I will almost always keep the Black Joker. Failing to get off Into the Spirit World can cost you Kirai, Jack Daw himself mitigates the loss of a card to hold onto it and is also a good reason in himself to keep it. Shikome are not a huge deal it they fail to hit, but do add weight to the situation.

Colette I would probably hold onto it with. Failing the Healing flip can be deadly, especially as you have a on it. But also most of your main hitters have low Wd and on their defence.

With Pandora I will most of the time throw it away, being able to search for crows is more important than a single attack failing to hit, and I will normally build in fail safes in case a insight/pacify chain is broken, as it can happen even if you don't flip a Black Joker.

Edited June 7, 2011 by Ratty

[LoboStele]

To elaborate a bit on mitigation: SOME mitigation should always be there. You should always be aware of the potential for an action to fail, and how you deal with that. Obviously there are other options (such as holding the joker).

But every mitigation action incurs a cost. Risk management is about balancing probability, impact, and cost. There are rarely exact numbers to attach to any of it that says "This is the right choice", but you can at least isolate the individual pieces.

In that same vein though, I go back to this thought: Is it better to have a 1 in my hand instead of the Black Joker? Or what about a 3 or a 4?

Statisically, you're always going to draw at least 1-2 low cards into your hand each turn. Yes, if you reduce your hand size by 1 by holding onto the Black Joker, you might end up leaving a 13 on top of the pile. But honestly, I'm 100% OK with flipping that 13 for Initiative!

I still contend that in virtually every game I play, there is some point where I am forced to discard a card for one reason or another. For me, at least, that's more than enough reason to hang onto the Black Joker many times.

That said...no, I don't always hang onto it. I'm much more apt to hold it until just before a critical round, and then discard it so I know it's out of the way for that turn, AND I get my full hand size. But up until that point, keeping it in my hand protects me from some fluke, or other mistake on my part.

[Drake]

Yeah, Colette's positive flip for means that, assuming you have 6 cards in your control hand and its the first attack of the round and all remaining cards in my fate deck, that is a 2/46 chance of flipping the black joker. Although as duet is likely to have activated prior to Colette being forced to use Slow to Die, that is more likely to be closer to 2/38 or even higher chance depending how many activations and attack/defence flips have taken place...

As has said above, it is tactical choice based on situation, but those kinds of odds for me pushes the probability/impact to:

Probability - Moderate

Impact - High.

Obviously that is one model example and as has been said only few crews really suffer for the Black Joker, Showgirls being one of those.

[Buhallin]

In that same vein though, I go back to this thought: Is it better to have a 1 in my hand instead of the Black Joker? Or what about a 3 or a 4?

Better to have a 1 than the Joker? Maybe.

There will often be cases where you can make use of low cards - misfired ranged attacks into melee, discarding for an insta-kill, etc. If you're holding the Black Joker, that's not something you'll want to use it for.

But I think there's a broader disadvantage in locking down one of your card slots. Your hand basically acts as a limited filter for your deck - it lets you make use of high cards while ignoring low cards. That's going to pull your average flips up, although in a very subtle way. The bigger your hand size, the more of your deck this filter covers.

Holding the joker will perma-filter that one card out, which is obviously what people want. But it reduces your overall hand size more than a low card that you draw, don't use, and discard. Because of the timing for discarding/drawing, a discarded card is effectively double the filter - you know that ace is out for this turn because you just discarded it, and you have a bigger filter because you draw a card to replace it. Holding a low card - ANY low card, not just the joker - only gives you half of that.

There's also a reinforcing effect because of your ability to hold good cards. This reduces the size of the filter in the same way, but it's a guaranteed good rather than avoidance of a rare event. When I play Rasputina, it's not uncommon for me to end up on the short end of things for the first few turns, and then unleash a spray of Overpowers driven by the high :masks I've been hoarding.

[Buhallin]

more likely to be closer to 2/38 or even higher chance depending how many activations and attack/defence flips have taken place...

...

Probability - Moderate

2/38 = 1/19 = 6%.

6% is not a moderate chance of occurrence. It's very low, actually. That's also ignoring, in the big picture, the chance that the black joker comes up before that flip. Assuming 2 Slow to Die flips per game, you might see it once every ten games or so.

But even then, the reduction is flawed thinking. When you have to make the decision - the beginning of the turn - the chances of the joker showing up FOR A GIVEN FLIP are around that 1/44 or so, depending on hand size, hold, and discard. So around 3-4% for one with a . You may get more information later to let you refine the odds and change the decisions you make later - if there are three cards left in your deck and you haven't seen it yet, you're looking at pretty high odds - but you cannot use that knowledge to make a broad decision. The chances of the joker hitting on THAT flip is constant throughout the scope of the turn.

[Drake]

The stats add up ofcourse, but for me personally id rather not have the black joker kill my master 1 in 10 games. She is key to keeping the crew surviveable.

But I do agree with you, just i'd mitigate it until the game is in the bag as wouldnt want to lose because of the black joker. Thats my opinion specific to that crew

[Necromorph]

I agree that it could go both ways, and I usually hold onto it until, as Drake said, a crucial turn where I need as many decent cards in my hand as possible, works well and I only actually flip the bugger ~once a game and usually not when it's crucial.

I have a friend who plays Seamus, however, who always holds it if he's lucky to draw it...and he'll hold it the whole game if he has to. IMO, he's completely justified. He will, without fail, flip the black joker for AT LEAST 2 crucial flips a game. Not just flip it twice a game (he usually flips it almost every turn for something or another) but he flips it for incredibly crucial flips all the time. I feel bad, but the Black Joker loves him so much. So he holds onto it like burried treasure whenever it comes up in his hand, lol.

[Q'iq'el]

In that same vein though, I go back to this thought: Is it better to have a 1 in my hand instead of the Black Joker? Or what about a 3 or a 4?

I'd say it's just as good, as long as you are willing to use the Black Joker. If the Black Joker is there to be hold on to no matter what, then any other card would be better.

Statisically, you're always going to draw at least 1-2 low cards into your hand each turn. Yes, if you reduce your hand size by 1 by holding onto the Black Joker, you might end up leaving a 13 on top of the pile. But honestly, I'm 100% OK with flipping that 13 for Initiative!

4 high cards and 2 low cards is probably the most perfect distribution of your Control Hand. You get high cards to spend on cheating fate, you get low cards to discard on activating abilities and such... and you don't waste high cards on the later (which means you can still flip them from the Fate Deck).

I still contend that in virtually every game I play, there is some point where I am forced to discard a card for one reason or another. For me, at least, that's more than enough reason to hang onto the Black Joker many times.

I think there's a distinction between holding Black Joker until you have to discard a card, and holding to it no matter what. Quite a few posters who argued for discarding the card didn't mind keeping it for a turn or two until it has to be discarded. But I think we've reached the point where original arguments are not even being read anymore and we get responses to responses and it all gets distorted.

There are few things left for me to say before I leave this argument for good:

It's tremendously difficult o calculate probabilities in Malifaux properly. As you flip your cards the probabilities change (due to change in the remaining cards in the Fate Deck). Probabilities of flipping a card change within the duration of the duel depending on the previous flips, as well as on models and rules involved (all forms of fate twisting). Non-random events also modify the outcome of the duel (cheating fate). Using misplaced or over-simplified methods only muds the waters further.

The Black Joker causes the loss of only those duels that would otherwise be won (Duels you'd lose you'd lose anyway). There're only two clear cases of this in Malifaux - one is damage flip (you conduct it after you won the duel and only the Black Joker can change the outcome at this point) and the second is healing flip (any card but the Black Joker heals at least 1 HP). If someone wants to calculate probabilities, the probability of Black Joker popping out exactly during one of those two events would be the right thing to calculate. I assume it'd be quite complex math - way beyond your regular dice games. I also assume the chance of exactly this happening is far far lower than anyone expects (as the chance to flip the Black Joker is not equal for every flip and may as well be 0 if the card has already been flipped).

Personally I think Control Hand should never be viewed as anything else than a resource to spend wisely. There are other ways to deal with chances, that are far more reliable (redundancy in crew design, sound tactics etc.).

Edited June 8, 2011 by Q'iq'el

[striker8]

People spent 11 pages debating the fact holding a card is completely up to the situation and individual player?:doh: The internet never fails to amaze me.

[tenabrae]

Yeah I know, having discussions is a curse upon us all.

[Hansel]

People spent 11 pages debating the fact holding a card is completely up to the situation and individual player?:doh: The internet never fails to amaze me.

the point is, they've picked apart a lot of the reasons why you'd want to hold or toss the card. It's made me think about Malifaux on a deeper level, that's for sure.

[Buhallin]

Isn't every decision you'll make in the game completely up to the situation and individual player? Why talk about it at all?

We can certainly agree that people on the 'net never cease to amaze, although we probably find our amazement in different places.

[tenabrae]

I tihnk Hansels post says it all, it made him think differently, that's the whole point of discussion. Without the social element we might as well be playing patience with our malifaux decks.

[Drake]

I tihnk Hansels post says it all, it made him think differently, that's the whole point of discussion. Without the social element we might as well be playing patience with our malifaux decks.

What tenabrae (and Hansel) said!

Social discussion is a very useful tool, and encourages people to look at situations in a different way/light. One or two comments gave me ideas certainly...

[Math Mathonwy]

I can minimize the chance of catastrophic flips very well by hiding in the back corner all game. Will that yield more wins?

Again with the "scoring points" style of debate. *yawn*

If holding the black joker were free, then there wouldn't even be a question. But it's NOT free. You're giving up a resource in order to reduce that chance of catastrophe. Hooker's soulstone example was intended to illustrate that - playing a soulstone down is more extreme than playing a card down, but the concept is the same, and hardly silly.

There is no upside to losing a soul stone. There is a definite upside to holding on to the Black Joker. Therefore the analogy doesn't make any sense except as a failed attempt to score yet more points.

Holding onto the Black Joker denies you the card you use for the initiative flip. If it's a high card, good, high ini flip is usually a blessing. If it's a low card, no big deal, exchanging the BJ for a low card is usually a bad trade. So yeah, basically only if the card is a moderate card with a good suit that ends up losing the ini flip it is a major detriment and even then it is a price that I'm willing to pay with many crews.

So the question is whether the general handicap you take is an acceptable cost for the reduced chance of catastrophe. We've said that's personal, and those of us who don't feel the need to hold it have suggested that it's driven largely by a very typical human tendency to remember big events, and apply undue weight to them. That's a perfectly normal, well-known reaction to catastrophic events, I'm not sure why you seem to be getting so defensive over it.

As a systems engineer working on my PhD I'm extremely well aware of human risk assessment capabilities and tendencies. No need to lecture me on that account, I assure you. I have been constantly talking about winning more in the long run. That one time that my Seamus died to Black Joker really doesn't matter in that perspective, but feel free to keep tilting at those windmills.

[AvatarForm]

I understood the 'Decembers Pawn' rule to state that when you 'play or flip' the black joker you get to draw two cards, and as discarding isn't the same I didn't believe it triggered that ability?

I would have to check on that, but the matter is it is not always a negative to have it in your hand when playing Raspy... sometimes, if you are losing the flip anyways, you can cheat "down" and play it in order to get the required trigger.

[Raythus]

I would have to check on that, but the matter is it is not always a negative to have it in your hand when playing Raspy... sometimes, if you are losing the flip anyways, you can cheat "down" and play it in order to get the required trigger.

See, these are the tactics I need to start applying with Raspy...I always flip the Black Joker on damage or Decembers Curse casts, so I'm too lost in being outraged by the joker to remember I actually get to draw cards. 5 or 6 games now, a Black Joker flip at least once in every one, and not a single time have I remembered =P

[Necromorph]

You think that's bad, I've been playing Levi for months and I still forget to draw cards when he casts a spell 90% of the time, lol. I get so excited, "Yeah I just melted your 10pt model's face in 1 activation....oh crap, I was supposed to draw 3 cards in there somewhere."

[micahwc]

The last game I played was a 50ss brawl. I was playing ressers. I drew the black joker in my starting hand. I held onto it on turn 2 so I could give my flesh construct fast. Because we were playing a high point game. I saw the black joker on turn 3, 4 and 6 from random flips. None of them were significant. My opponent drew it to start as well. He also discarded it turn 2. There were 3 turns when it showed up for him the rest of that game and all 3 were significant. 2 involved killing blows that did no damage. One was jack daw.

I know we lost because of poor crew selection, poor schemes and strategies selecection, poor tactical decisions, and bad luck, but I blame it all on the black joker we gave up against my earlier posting about always keeping it.