Malifaux Burns, math and speculation

[dancater]

From Wyrd site

"bringing new title cards for every master this side of the Breach! With the introduction of these Title cards, and an additional 40 new characters introduced to the world of Malifaux, you’ll be able to expand and customize your favorite crew like never before!"

8 factions each with 8 masters (64 total masters) divided as:

So, please check my math:

• Guild 5 unique master 3 dual faction
• Rezzers 6 unique master 2 dual faction
• Neverborn 5 unique master 3 dual faction
• Arcanist 5 unique master 3 dual faction
• Outcasts 6 unique master 2 dual faction
• Bayou 6 unique master 2 dual faction
• Ten Thunders 5 unique master 3 dual faction
• Explorers 6 unique master 2 dual faction 

That equals 44 unique masters and 20 dual masters. 

So this means 54 separate masters, so 54 new titles, and 40 new characters coming.

Assuming every title has at least one shared character, then 27 characters will bridge the gap between any two titles. Leaving 13 characters, the Other Side Court of Two and Guild boxes have seven characters unique to 2 Guild (Guild mage, Gatling guns) or 2 Rezzer models (Enslaved spirit, Gwisin) with also Ikiryo who maybe be a variant but would that classify as "new", lets say no. 

This leaves 36 new characters.

The other new characters we know of are Deacon (Kaeris/Reva), Cavatica (Nexus/Lucius), Lady Yume (Dreamer/Asami), The Kurgan (Jedza/MamaZ), Noxious Nephlim (Nekima/Molly), Kenshiro (Viks/Yan Lo), the Drudge (Ironsides/Anya). That is 7 new characters, across 14 masters.

Leaving 29 more.

The Outcast box has potentially 3 more Yannic Waller, Catalan brawler and Catalan Rifleman. As does the Bayou box with 4 Stumpy, Fluffernutter, Ruffles and Bo Peep. If they count then that is 7 more.

Down to 22. So what is left.

Theoretically if every master gets a dual keyword model we need a total of 27, and we've definitely had 7, meaning we'd need 20 more. But with Kirai and Sonnia getting specific Otherside releases could we count them both out meaning 18 to go? The starter boxes contain Syndicate (3), Sooey (1), Whiz Bang (1), Tricksy (1) and Swampfiend (1), but given at least Swampfiend has The Kurgan that does not seem to limit the dual keyword option.

So if the Otherside box does cover Sonnia and Kirai we seem to have potentially 3 open model slots. If Sonnia and Kirai will get a dual keyword still then we have 2 open model slot. All this assuming every title has a dual keyword model.

And what about future Starter boxes. We've seen Explorers which is simply a release point for known models, Outcasts 3 new models, Bayou 4 new models (from Bayou Bash game). Does the Otherside box count as the starter boxes (will that box be released as 2 separate starters?) for Guild (the Gunner and Mage are versatile, will the Guild box contain these two? What does that mean if you bought the Otherside box? Will there be a third versatile Henchman or Enforcer?). Does this mean that the Enslaved spirit and Gwisin will be versatile models, and does the same apply to Rezzers here as Guild? What about new models for starter boxes in the other factions, so Arcanists, Ten Thunders, Neverborn? Will they each get three new models? Will the forthcoming release include them? If so it would seem we have at least 11 models we have not seen contained in the starter boxes.

This is a lot of meaningless math and pure speculation, but it interested me to break it down thusly. 

[dancater]

And also.

Will the Malifaux burning book be available as a GenCon order?? If so I'm saving my purchase and shipping money now.

What does the Burning Man's corruption mean for the 8 masters afflicted and for the wider factions?

Will this be simply story and master title theme connected? Or will it have wider in-game implications with new keyword/faction options? 

Is the Burning Man Neverborn or a harbinger of some much darker ideal. Is this the potential next future faction?

And what of the Burning Man himself and his potential as a master and crew? Will this happen? 

I wants, needs, to know more. 

[solkan]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:05 PM, dancater said:

s the Burning Man Neverborn or a harbinger of some much darker ideal. Is this the potential next future faction?

Before recent events, the Burning Man was one of the Tyrants.  Every Neverborn faction would declare war on it before cooperating with it.   

[fire5tone]

So, one thing, there is 54 masters, so 54 titles, and given that we already know most of the models (atleast what they are) we have 3 characters unaccounted for

 

26 (I doubt kirai and sonnia are getting more stuff) duel faction, 4 bayou, 3 outcast, 4 TOS, bam, 37... 3 left. That's starter territory. But who? 

 

[santaclaws01]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:59 PM, dancater said:

2 Neverborn (Enslaved spirit, Gwisin)

I'm not sure why your assumption that the 2 models that are going to be packed with Kirai are going to be neverborn and not, you know, ressers. Especially when what we've seen of them lore wise they're a perfect fit for Kirai's theme.

Also your math is off. You go from 40 new characters, -4 for the ToS(Ikiryo isn't a new character, even if new title), to 34 new characters left instead of 36. 

So from 36, -7 for the outcast and bayou starters, going to 29.

As it's incredibly safe to assume the trend will follow and we'll get a dual keyword model for the 27 sets of masters, that leaves 2 left, which is an awkward number to work with. Our other option is Kirai and Sonnia break the trend since they're in the ToS starter box, and we'll only be getting 26 new dual keyword models, which brings us to a nice and tidy 3 models for a starter box of some kind. Maybe Guild witch hunters since right now Sonnia is shaping up to be the only master that isn't getting a new keyword model.

[dancater]

3 hours ago, santaclaws01 said:

I'm not sure why your assumption that the 2 models that are going to be packed with Kirai are going to be neverborn and not, you know, ressers. Especially when what we've seen of them lore wise they're a perfect fit for Kirai's theme.

Correted that. My error.

3 hours ago, santaclaws01 said:

Also your math is off. You go from 40 new characters, -4 for the ToS(Ikiryo isn't a new character, even if new title), to 34 new characters left instead of 36. 

So from 36, -7 for the outcast and bayou starters, going to 29.

As it's incredibly safe to assume the trend will follow and we'll get a dual keyword model for the 27 sets of masters, that leaves 2 left, which is an awkward number to work with. Our other option is Kirai and Sonnia break the trend since they're in the ToS starter box, and we'll only be getting 26 new dual keyword models, which brings us to a nice and tidy 3 models for a starter box of some kind. Maybe Guild witch hunters since right now Sonnia is shaping up to be the only master that isn't getting a new keyword model.

Same, I did the math, then realised that certain models were alts/resculpts and didn't correct. Thanks.

[dancater]

3 hours ago, santaclaws01 said:

Maybe Guild witch hunters since right now Sonnia is shaping up to be the only master that isn't getting a new keyword model.

But does the Otherside box stand in for the Guild/Rezzer starter box?

Your correct, the remaining 3 is seductive, but would no where near cover Arcanists, Ten Thunders and Neverborn, who thus far have no new 'starter' versatiles. Where, will, we see the 9+/- versatile starter box models for these factions? Will they be re-sculpts instead of new? Will some of the new release dual keyword models include versatile and be released in a starter? Will, given the tempo of releases, these Faction starters (and possibly Guild and Rezzers with more new models) be part of a release in 2022?

I think the 2022 release is actually the most likely here, it won't actually slow the starter box output, they already released the Outcasts starter without the book, I could see two new starter boxes releasing before a new book release next year. Assuming there is a planned new 3E book release next year.

Interestingly the awkward 2 would comfortably cover a Henchman/Enforcer versatile for both Guild and Rezzers, filling out the Otherside releases to 3 new for both.

With the clear move towards integrating the Otherside and Malifaux lore fiction together more closely there is huge room for speculation on what is due in 2022.

[solkan]

4 hours ago, dancater said:

But does the Otherside box stand in for the Guild/Rezzer starter box?

No, probably not.  Because the starter boxes are pretty much a fixed format.  If you've worked out the math so that there are two missing henchman, then those two missing models would be the starter box leaders.

I say "probably not" because it's possible that Wyrd could make an exception, but I think there'd be too much complaining about missing out on the versatile models.

The forum post announcing the starter boxes:  

 

 

[dancater]

So we've revealed half of the potential master titles, with the count as of 29/8 after the Household Gamer channels reveals.

We have 8 factions each with 8 masters (64 total masters, with 44 faction unique and 20 dual master [which constitutes another 10 distinct masters]) divided as:

• Guild 5 unique master 3 dual faction - 3 primary and 1 dual revealed, with Nellie (Burning Man), Lucius (paired with Nexus), Dashal and Basse outstanding (so 4 left) 
• Rezzers 6 unique master 2 dual faction - 5 primary and 1 dual faction title revealed, Seamus and Jack Daw outstanding (2 left)
• Neverborn 5 unique master 3 dual faction - 2 primary and 2 dual faction revealed, remaining Lucius (paired with Cadmus), Euripides (Burning Man), Pandora and Titania left (4 left)
• Arcanist 5 unique master 3 dual faction - 2 primary and 3 dual faction titles revealed, with Colette, Sandeep and Rasputina remaining (3 left)
• Outcasts 6 unique master 2 dual faction - 3 primary faction revealed, remaining are Parker (Burning Man), Zipp, Hamelin, Leveticus and Jack Daw (5 left) 
• Bayou 6 unique master 2 dual faction - 2 primary and 1 dual faction revealed, with Ulix (Burning Man), Zipp, Wong, Brewmaster and Som'er remaining (5 left)
• Ten Thunders 5 unique master 3 dual faction - 1 primary and 3 dual faction revealed, with Youko, Lynch, Misaki (Burning Man) and Shenlong all remaining (4 left)
• Explorers 6 unique master 2 dual faction - 3 primary and 1 dual faction title revealed, so Maxine (Burning Man), Nexus (paired with Lucius), Basse and English Ivan still outstanding (4 left)

I think that is 27 master titles now revealed. 21 unique faction a 6 distinct (so 12) dual faction. Which should mean 27 titles remain (23 unique and 4(8) dual faction). We know one pairing is Lucius/Nexus, another master should pair with Von Schtook and six of the remaining masters are associated with the Burning Man cult. 

We have three more scheduled content reveals T&G Productions 3 Sept, Boring Conversation on 6 Sept and finally Biletsky on 10 Sept - for a total of 6 more tiles previewed. Plus anything else Wyrd surprises us with over the next two weeks.

Both Bayou and Outcasts are waiting to catch up, I wonder if they will. I imagine Rezzers are finished, but they might reveal more, even the whole Faction, who knows.

I think that math is right.

  

[dancater]

So all the content provider reveals we expected are finished, we've also had some release previews without accompanying (yet) reveals.

What we know. The paired and keyword linked.

1. Som'er (B) and Seamus (R) with the White Rabbit (R)
2. Brewmaster (B) and Youko (TT) with Shojo (TT)
3. Colette (A) and Pandora (N) with Dorian (N)
4. Ophelia (B) and Perdita (G) with Sly (G)
5. Lucas (TT/E) and McMourning (R) with the Curator (R)
6. Mei (A/TT) and Mah (B) with the Rock Hopper (B)
7. Marcus (A/N) and Lord Cooper (E) with the Empryean Eagle (E)
8. Justice (G) and Tara (O) with 33 (O)
9. Hoffman (A/G) and Von Schill (O) with the Metallurgist (O)
10. Jedza (E) and Zoraida (N/B) with the Kurgan (N)
11. Nekima (N) and Molly (R) with the Noxious Nephlim (R)
12. The Viks (O) and Yan Lo (R/TT) with Kenshiro (TT)
13. Anya (E) and Ironsides (A) with the Drudge (A)
14. Reva (R-Burning) and Kaeris (A-Burning) with Deacon Hillcrest (A)
15. Dreamer (N) and Asami (TT) with Lady Yume (TT)

Then we have two in the new Otherside box, without a keyword linking model(s) but instead separate keyword faction versatiles.

• Sonnia (G) with the Guild Mage and Gatling Gunner and Kirai (R) with the Gwisin and Enslaved Spirit

Then we have one master spoiled but with no pairing or additional keyword releases.

• Von Schtook

Finally we have box reveals without spoiler reveals which tell us parings and cross keyword models.

1. Nexus (E) and Lucius (N/G) with Cavatica (?)
2. Daw (O/R) and Nellie (G-Burning) with Auguste Hart (?)

So of the 54 distinct masters we have information on 37 (33 spoiled and 4 known). One master stands out, Von Schtook, without a pairing or keyword, who is the mad professor teamed with (does he have to be? I think yes, maybe Sandeep). I suspect Sonnia and Kirai will not get a cross keyword model.

We know there are 8 Burning Man cultist masters, with 3 spoiled (Kaeris (A) and Reva (R) paired also Nellie (G) [known]) and 5 unknown (Ulix (B), Parker (O), Maxine (E), Misaki (TT) and Euripides (N)), they clearly do not have to be linked.

After counting the 37 known and the 5 additional cultists we have 12 more masters to go (Sandeep (A), Rasputina (A), Wong (B), Lynch (TT), Shenlong (TT), Basse (G/E), English Iven (E), Dashal (G), Zipp (O/B), Titania (N), Leveticus (O), Hamelin (O)).

Assuming every master remaining pairs and includes a cross-keyword model that also means we have 9 more new models to reveal.

So far only Rezzers have all 8 titles known. Arcanists have 6 known, Neverborn have 6 known, Guild have 6 known, Bayou has 5 known, Ten Thunders have 5 known, Explorers have 5 known, Outcasts have 4 known; with two of the unknown masters being dual (one Guild/Explorer and one Outcast/Bayou).       

   

[Maladroit]

2 hours ago, dancater said:

 . . . . 

 

1. Colette (A) and Pandora (N) with Dorian (N)
2. Mei (A/TT) and Mah (B) with the Rock Hopper (B)
3. Marcus (A/N) and Lord Cooper (E) with the Empryean Eagle (E)
4. Hoffman (A/G) and Von Schill (O) with the Metallurgist (O)
5. Anya (E) and Ironsides (A) with the Drudge (A)
6. Reva (R-Burning) and Kaeris (A-Burning) with Deacon Hillcrest (A)

So of the 54 distinct masters we have information on 37 (33 spoiled and 4 known). One master stands out, Von Schtook, without a pairing or keyword, who is the mad professor teamed with (does he have to be? I think yes, maybe Sandeep).  . . . 

   

Assuming that all factions have a pair with another faction (which I think has been said) then Sandeep cannot pair with von Schtook. We have 6 arcanist masters known, and two to go. We do not yet have an arc-guild combo or an arc-tt combo. So Sandeep is possibly paired with Shenlong out of the ones that are available.

 

Von Schtook is harder to pin down - all Resser pairs have been revealed so it will be the duplicate which could be anything.

[Sweet Tooth]

20 minutes ago, Maladroit said:

Assuming that all factions have a pair with another faction

This won’t hold up since Guild only has two unrevealed pairs left and no pairs yet with Arcanist, Neverborn, and Thunders. 

[Maladroit]

25 minutes ago, Sweet Tooth said:

This won’t hold up since Guild only has two unrevealed pairs left and no pairs yet with Arcanist, Neverborn, and Thunders. 

Well there goes that theory.

Edit to add: I'd forgotten about Daw/Nellie tbh.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Maladroit

[Mr Oogie Boogie]

any idea when the burning man crews are being released? 

[Adran]

11 hours ago, Mr Oogie Boogie said:

any idea when the burning man crews are being released? 

I'm assuming you have looked at the upcoming release schedule and can't see the models you want on there yet. In general the book covers the next years worth of releases, so they will probably all be out by July next year. (Its not always true, but the likelihood is that the majority are planned for release by then). We, as customers don't know the order they plan to release them unless they tell us (or they tell distribution centers and you find shops putting certain things up for pre-order).