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Tannenbaum and Comprehesnive Notes: opponent or self?


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Is it mathematically better to remove 4 13s from your opponent for 4 1s from yourself?

I'm thinking the 13s from your opponent as you can still cheat if you flip a 1, or if they're in your hand can be used for non-duel matters. Whereas if your opponent has a 13 and equal or greater stat to you, they're succeeding no matter what you do.

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4 minutes ago, touchdown said:

Is it mathematically better to remove 4 13s from your opponent for 4 1s from yourself?

I'm thinking the 13s from your opponent as you can still cheat if you flip a 1, or if they're in your hand can be used for non-duel matters. Whereas if your opponent has a 13 and equal or greater stat to you, they're succeeding no matter what you do.

There isn't a right answer, because it depends on how you play. Both alter the average of the card flipped the same, ( give you +1 on the average opposed flip) but what is harder to calculate is how much the change in weak vs severe is what you want, and who has the most TN tests as well as how much you cheat. 

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IMO, removing the aces doesn't really matter as much as just removing any weaks. For removing low cards, you are looking to improve your damage flips (because you're reducing the number of weaks in your deck by ~20%).

In a full deck with no other factors considered, you have a ~37% chance of flipping two moderates or better when flipping two cards. When you've removed four weaks, you have a ~43% chance.  So it is a small, but noticeable, uptick in how often you're going to be flipping moderate damage on minus flips. It is also relevant that it places a cap on how many weak cards you can flip (if you're playing a crew that goes through a full deck a turn, you've saved yourself 4 weak flips).

However, if I had to guess, I would say removing 13s (and 12s) against your opponent is better.

  • This weakens their flips on the duels, making it more likely you can guarantee hits - even with weaker models.
  • If you're good at counting cards, keep track of how many 13s (and 12s and RJ) are in your opponent's discard pile. If you know how many are left, you can make calculated risks ('this attack is only a bad idea if he has a 13 in hand, but given that there's 3/5 cards in his discard pile and hasn't cheated one yet, I'll assume he won't flip it').
  • As you say, it makes cheating harder.
  • It reduces the number of severes in their deck by ~1/3, which is pretty impactful. Given many crews are desperate for at least a few severes a turn, you're taking their odds down of having multiple severes quite a bit.
    • In a normal hand, you have a ~45% chance of drawing two severes.
    • In a situation where four severes are removed, you have a ~29% chance of drawing two severes.

Eliminating severes is a much more severe outcome (particularly for duels), so I would lean towards eliminating severes (especially if you're good at counting cards). However, two things to note:

  • Removing weaks from your own deck is better than nothing. It may not be viable for Tannenbaum to land the hit.
  • Removing weaks from your own deck is a modest buff to how much damage you're doing (and this especially matters for Explorer's Society who have much better moderate damage than weak damage). So if you're just wanting to spam attacks and do some damage, this may be an angle to consider.

EDIT: Also never trust my numbers as hard fact. I may have made a typo when calculating 😜

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