Taelor: What is She Missing?

[Maniacal_cackle]

Awesome

Simulations likely approach reality a little bit more than the napkin math, although of course they don't account for the nuance of player decision making.

Still, very interesting!

[SEV]

Wow @Rufessyou bring an analytical approach to a subjective fight... Easy win imo! Seriously this was super interesting. I wish I had your coding skills to tackle Malifaux question/puzzle.

[Adran]

6 hours ago, RisingPhoenix said:

Negative to straight.  That's the highest tier of improvement.  Straight to positive is similar, only slightly worse (second chance to flip red joker slightly trumps black).  If there were no jokers it'd be identical.  Bell curves are cool.  

Double negative to negative is far worse for puncture - both are very likely to be min even with the trigger.  Double positive is of course diminishing returns (and more red hunting).  

Cheers. I have just checked the maths and other than rounding issues you were right that the 0.6 is fairly constant (bizarrely as I calculate it, the likelihood of gaining the black on a means that if you were already on a straight flip you gain the greatest benefit in raw damage, even more than you got if you were starting on negative, although its only a 0.06 damage point per action improvement).

I think I got fooled because they don't look like bell curves anymore. 

5 hours ago, Maniacal_cackle said:

Awesome

Simulations likely approach reality a little bit more than the napkin math, although of course they don't account for the nuance of player decision making.

Still, very interesting!

Just be aware that  it is looking at a different thing to what was previously being discussed. It is a better approximation  of the effects of cheating, but that is because the previous didn't consider it at all. (which I still think is the strength of the Puncture trigger, so its going to look worse if you ignore it). 

Whilst I accept that Critical Strike will cause more damage over the course of a game, for the most part its less discriminate.

If I were to be given the choice of facing Critical strike Taelor or Puncture Taelor then my models heath is what matters, and if I'm on 4 health whilst Critical strike is more likely to kill it the addition resources for Puncture to kill it are low. If I'm on 5 or 6 health I think that if my opponent wants the model dead they would do better with Puncture (even though if they spend a stone and have a in the duel total either because they cheated, or they were lucky with the flip they can reach 5 damage on weak because a severe card in hand is more likely than a high enough  in hand ). I also think that on 7 health its more likely they are holding the red joker to cheat for damage than it is that they will flip severe on a negative flip. 

That might be my outlook, and its fairly binary based on importance of killing a model. If a models 5 wounds and it doesn't matter too much if it dies this turn or not, then sure, have critical strike.  You are more likely to kill it with fewer resources spent, but you have less control over if you are going to kill it or not. I accept that the Viks are also going to want the same resources Taelor wants, so she can't always reach her "full potential" in her keyword crew. 

 

 

[RisingPhoenix]

12 hours ago, Maniacal_cackle said:

Somehow if it still isn't clear...

You don't use puncture and from the heavens together. They're two different tools that give you different angles of tackling soulstone users (and hard to wound).

You could of course argue that they end up being somewhat redundant, but it still makes Taelor very scary for anyone who uses stones (or hard to wound) to survive.

They give you the same angle - attack them with your hammer.  Unfortunately if you declare puncture they can stone the damage and from the heavens they can stone the flip.  

So no it's just one angle.  Head on.  

Fun to see the simulation so close on my math, I had ~0.56 it simmed to ~0.54.  Expected, but fun anyway.

[Rabbitknight]

On 12/16/2021 at 10:50 AM, Adran said:

I accept that the Viks are also going to want the same resources Taelor wants, so she can't always reach her "full potential" in her keyword crew. 

 

 

I think this is the crux of the matter. Yes, Puncture is good at controlling damage and getting to the 6 damage hits. Yes, Crit Strike is more efficient for 4-5 damage. The crew she is in doesn't have the card resources to support Puncture without suffering in other areas, so while Puncture is good, is it good For Taelor as things stand?

[Maniacal_cackle]

3 hours ago, Rabbitknight said:

I think this is the crux of the matter. Yes, Puncture is good at controlling damage and getting to the 6 damage hits. Yes, Crit Strike is more efficient for 4-5 damage. The crew she is in doesn't have the card resources to support Puncture without suffering in other areas, so while Puncture is good, is it good For Taelor as things stand?

It comes down to how much you value redundancy.

With viktorias as beaters, you have a game ending threat in 1-2 positions. With Taelor, that can go up to 2-3 positions.

Also Viktorias do tend to die. They're easier to burst down than Taelor is xD

[Zebo]

So Taelor is quite useful when you can take advantage from her Ruthless (opponent dependant) or Bring It to lure enemies from posotion (game dependant). Ans not interesting in other match ups. 

 

Like a tech piece. 

[Jesy Blue]

I'm saddened that the only Mercenary henchman is relegated to a tech piece.

[admiralvorkraft]

53 minutes ago, Jesy Blue said:

I'm saddened that the only Mercenary henchman is relegated to a tech piece.

It's not uncommon - both Obliteration henchmen are sometimes-takes. Though admittedly Aionus is a synergy tech-pick rather than a counter-tech pick.

I'd also argue that Bring it! Is relevant in pretty much every game.

[Axelst]

I use Taelor in pretty much all my Viks game and as a tech pick with other masters. I almost never use bring it.

[Maniacal_cackle]

26 minutes ago, Axelst said:

I use Taelor in pretty much all my Viks game and as a tech pick with other masters. I almost never use bring it.

Do you make much use of the puncture/from the heavens/knock aside triggers? Do you stone for them?

[Axelst]

I don't often stone for them, unless I'm facing Chompy. Though sometimes I do. Knock aside is an underrated trigger.

[Maniacal_cackle]

1 minute ago, Axelst said:

I don't often stone for them, unless I'm facing Chompy. Though sometimes I do. Knock aside is an underrated trigger.

Why specifically Chompy (and not other soulstone users)? Is it because he is extra squishy when he can't stone or use terrifying?

[Maniacal_cackle]

Oh and do you use the fast from student much?

[Axelst]

I almost always hire student of conflict with the Viks and I'd probably still do it without Taelor. Though Taelor really benefits from fast.

I mentioned Chompy specifically because I often hire Taelor ook against Dreamer because of ruthless, and it often ends with her killing him through from the heavens. There are probably other soulstone users it would work just as well against, it has just happened more with Chompy.

[Maniacal_cackle]

15 minutes ago, Axelst said:

I almost always hire student of conflict with the Viks and I'd probably still do it without Taelor. Though Taelor really benefits from fast.

I mentioned Chompy specifically because I often hire Taelor ook against Dreamer because of ruthless, and it often ends with her killing him through from the heavens. There are probably other soulstone users it would work just as well against, it has just happened more with Chompy.

What's your unpack for Taelor? Move, focus. Student makes her fast for a big turn 2?

And lol makes sense. As a resser, I get the same treatment for Madame Sybelle and Hanged 😧

[Axelst]

With the Viks I usually give her fast before she activates turn 1. What she does then varies a lot, often dependent on what the enemy does. Sometimes it's move, focus, drop a scheme for fast next turn. Sometimes she charges in turn 1. Occasionally she uses bring it to get models in range of the Viks.