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Guild Fauxvember Results!


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Hi everyone! Here's the link to my reporting and brief analysis on Fauxvember!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18zIZCXiSaXK6QE1fyady3htLn4P3aAevI7Xel3nCzuI/edit?usp=sharing

A Disclaimer:

This represents 15 Guild games in a field of approximately 63 games (some were ringer'd). That's a pretty small sample size. Plus, we had all sorts of experience matchups: experienced-Guild vs opposing-newish, newer-Guild vs experienced-opposing, etc. In some ways, we'd do better to write a two sentence description of each of the fifteen games.

Still, I like numbers, and they start to shape part of the story. Plus, taking things comparatively, we can still get a bit of a sense of how Guild is performing in the broader meta.

How did Guild do?

Our Scoring: 6 Wins, 7 Losses, and 2 Draws. This puts our ratio 6th of 7; Outcasts performed worse in this tournament.
Our standing: Guild players finished in positions 8, 18, 23, 38, and 40. So, we were spread throughout the mix, but towards the bottom. We had five players running in a field with roughly 5-per-faction, with 6 arcanists and 12 rezzers. Essentially, if we assume 8 groups of roughly the same size, with two rezzer groups, there's a Guild player pretty close to the bottom of each bracket of 8 at the end of the tourney ... but we still were able to spread through the various brackets.

 

Which Masters Were Played?

Hoffman and Dashel were both taken 5 times. Hoffman went 3W/2L; Dashel went 1W/3L/1D. Lady Justice was played 3 times for 2W/0L/1D, and Basse and Nellie were each played once with a loss.

Perdita, Lucius, and Sonnia weren't played in our 15 games.

Which Schemes were Played?

The tournament offered all 13 schemes at least once; Vendetta and Leave Your Mark were in two separate pools.

Remembering that Leave Your Mark and Vendetta were offered twice, we chose pretty broadly from amongst the schemes. We never took Breakthrough, Sabotage, or Runic Binding, which matches the rough theory that Guild has fewer mobile schemers. We had trouble scoring on Leave Your Mark as well.

Our strongest scheme was Assassinate, which was taken by 3 of 5 players (It was not taken by Hoffman against Reva or by Dashel against Zipp), and was fully scored three of three times. This matches the theory that Guild is good at killing a target. This was the only scheme that Guild players collectively scored above 50% of the points for which it was taken.

We scored half points on a number of schemes: Let Them Bleed, Catch and Release, Take Prisoner, and Research Mission. Most of these points were on Reveal, suggesting that we can choose and pursue these gameplans.

We had more difficulty converting to points on Hidden Martyrs, Claim Jump, Leave Your Mark, and Vendetta, each of which require particular models to be involved in given fighting engagements.

Guild R E Taken % completed
Let Them Bleed 1 0 1 0.5
Vendetta 3 2 7 0.3571428571
Catch and Release
1 2 3 0.5
Leave Your Mark 3 2 8 0.3125
Breakthrough 0 0 0  
Assassinate 3 3 3 1
Spread Them Out
0 1 1 0.5
Take Prisoner 2 1 3 0.5
Sabotage 0 0 0  
Runic Binding 0 0 0  
Hidden Martyrs 1 0 2 0.25
Claim Jump 1 1 3 0.3333333333
Research Mission
2 0 2 0.5

 

Strat Scoring:

We scored 7 of 20 on Corner Symbols of Authority -- a somewhat low-scoring setup, as point 2 in particular is tough. However, this 35% strat scoring ratio was nearly half of the collective tournament ration at 64.8% for that same round.

We scored 17 of 20 on Flank Corrupted Ley Lines -- a somewhat HIGH-scoring setup, as the first point is nearly guaranteed with several options for the second. Our 85% strat scoring here compares strongly to 67.6% from the collective tournament for that round.

We scored 5 of 20 on Wedge Recover Evidence -- a somewhat ... even-scoring setup, as the figures have to engage one another, but each player can dictate some terms. Our 25% strat scoring here is low, but so is the collective tournament scoring, at about 47% for that round.

Given the small sample size, it would seem that we're strong in some strats and weak in others. Symbols -- particularly on corner -- requires deep-scheming, so we might consider again the possibility that this pool in particular hit Guild's relative weaknesses.

 

 

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My Corners Symbols matchup ended up with him getting 4 and me getting three (he was Outcasts, I was Ressers).

But what I realised that game was that in some matchups, you just HAVE to play defensive. His scoring potential was better than mine, and since we both fought to score points, I lost the game.

If I had focused on killing anything that crossed the centreline, I likely would have scored 2 symbols and he would have scored 1-2. That'd have been a much better outcome for me!

So I wonder if the low score on corner symbols may not reflect that Guild are "bad" at this combination, but just reflects that you have to play a game where you aim for both players to score low on it (rather than a game where you both score high, but you score slightly higher)?

Not an expert on guild, but my thoughts on that aspect!

EDIT: The big statistic of course is winrate on each situation - what is any given faction's winrate on any given pool? But I doubt we'll have enough data to make even a guess at that.

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1 hour ago, Maniacal_cackle said:

My Corners Symbols matchup ended up with him getting 4 and me getting three (he was Outcasts, I was Ressers).

But what I realised that game was that in some matchups, you just HAVE to play defensive. His scoring potential was better than mine, and since we both fought to score points, I lost the game.

If I had focused on killing anything that crossed the centreline, I likely would have scored 2 symbols and he would have scored 1-2. That'd have been a much better outcome for me!

So I wonder if the low score on corner symbols may not reflect that Guild are "bad" at this combination, but just reflects that you have to play a game where you aim for both players to score low on it (rather than a game where you both score high, but you score slightly higher)?

Not an expert on guild, but my thoughts on that aspect!

EDIT: The big statistic of course is winrate on each situation - what is any given faction's winrate on any given pool? But I doubt we'll have enough data to make even a guess at that.

I don't know about other factions, but I don't find guilds ability to kill to be effective enough to guard markers.  Too many leapy/placey options often get there without ever really being at risk from guild.

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7 minutes ago, 4thstringer said:

I don't know about other factions, but I don't find guilds ability to kill to be effective enough to guard markers.  Too many leapy/placey options often get there without ever really being at risk from guild.

Again, have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to Guild (although am eyeing up the faction because it looks super fun), but...

In my experience on corner symbols, the enemy will be pretty thinly spread to try to get to your markers. If you can hit them with a combo of some models to guard your symbols and some models to deal with their scheme runners, they can start to run out of gas very quickly.

For example, in my last game, there was Tara and Midnight Emissary charging across the centreline to grab markers. If I had stopped the two of them, suddenly keeping him under control would have been a LOT easier.

The ideal of course is to summon stuff to bog down the markers, and then kill their scheme runners with Don't Mind Me. Executioners are best, but that seems like a crazy use of one of the best summons in the game. You could maybe try pathfinders summoning a pair of trap on every symbol? You should be able to protect at least two of them that way.

No idea what you do against something like Colette, though.

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7 hours ago, Plaag said:

why nelly is so unpopular? 

I don't think she's unpopular so much as this wasn't the best set of pools for her. I looked at her for Corner Symbols but decided it required a bit more speed and Nellie outstrips the rest of her crew pretty quickly and can be easily focused down if she's your only piece threatening the strategy. Corrupted Ley Lines had Spread Them Out and Sabotage as marker-based schemes, but also had Assassinate, and Nellie likes to play in the front lines and her major defense is squeal and on-activation healing, both of which can be played around if the opponent really wants to. Recover Evidence she has the powerful Don't Mind Me tech for (and honestly she would have been fine here I think), but her crew isn't as strong at killing as any of the masters that were played.

She's also a high-skill threshold to play.
 

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2 hours ago, Yore Huckleberry said:

I don't think she's unpopular so much as this wasn't the best set of pools for her. I looked at her for Corner Symbols but decided it required a bit more speed and Nellie outstrips the rest of her crew pretty quickly and can be easily focused down if she's your only piece threatening the strategy. Corrupted Ley Lines had Spread Them Out and Sabotage as marker-based schemes, but also had Assassinate, and Nellie likes to play in the front lines and her major defense is squeal and on-activation healing, both of which can be played around if the opponent really wants to. Recover Evidence she has the powerful Don't Mind Me tech for (and honestly she would have been fine here I think), but her crew isn't as strong at killing as any of the masters that were played.

She's also a high-skill threshold to play.
 

its not hard to play her, and in keyword u need only phiona, sometimes alison and barrel

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Never took Queeg and never will. He is more a liability imo. Dashel problem is he does not require anything in keyword except his totem. None. Why bother taking a model only suited for buffing something in keyword you dont even need? I prefer to take some good models instead. Dashel himself is a decent choice (considering our selection range) but the problem is a complex one:

1) We have only a few solid models for a solo pickup duty. Any other way requires combos and combos can be disrupted a lot easier. Okay, we have LJ. Veeeery satisfactory to use the most expensive model in the game as a scheme runner (no).

2) We have a very weak symbols protection strategies. No terrain markers, backside models are not fast enough/hit hard enough.

You kinda torn between picking strat and defending strat and both parts are our weak points.

You can do kinda well with the opponents not quite optimized, but you will be frustrated a lot playing against marker creating flying/leaping/incorporeal/teleporting or whatever opponent. Good luck playing against Tara, Collette, Euripides and the likes.

Basse will be a decent choice once Worm is out i guess

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