ATTN: Mathematicians. Odds of 6 through 13 of tomes being in Euripides opening hand

[Marc Bowling]

Hello. First Euri game coming up. Just wondering what the odds are of drawing a 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 or 13 of tomes in his opening hand of 7 is. 

 

I calculated 30% but I'm not sure if this is correct. Can someone who isn't 22 years out of this math check me? Google kind of just confused my feeble little brain more.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Marc Bowling
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[Maniacal_cackle]

The hypergeometric calculator is perfect for this:

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

• Population size: 54 (for 54 cards in the deck)
• Number of success in population: 8 (for 8 cards you're after)
• Sample size: 6 (for six cards in hand)
• Number of successes in sample: 1 (you only need one card meeting your requirements).

Hit calculate, and you can see at the bottom that you have a 63.7% chance of having at least one card that meets these requirements. If you include the red joker, it goes up to 68.4%.

[Gaston]

Poor Cyclops...

 

@Maniacal_cackle sample size is 7.

[Maniacal_cackle]

Another thing to note though is when you see a suit requirement like that on a master/henchman, generally the idea is you use a stone for it.

You have a 99.7% chance of having a stat high enough for it, so then the stone just gives you the suit.

[Marc Bowling]

Thanks for all that!

[Maniacal_cackle]

Oh, and one more thing - Euripedes can also use The Old Ways to flip it from the discard pile, so that's another avenue for guaranteeing it.

Just have to be careful about timing your activation!

[Marc Bowling]

Was thinking of activating him first and hoping for the card I need for 2 pillars then old ways it 2 more times.

[Maniacal_cackle]

4 minutes ago, Marc Bowling said:

Was thinking of activating him first and hoping for the card I need for 2 pillars then old ways it 2 more times.

xD this is epic.

Although because of your initiative flip, I don't think you'll be able to do it that way? Now if the initiative flip is lucky enough to be the right card... xD

[Marc Bowling]

Oh dang I forgot about initiative!

[Ogid]

I was also wondering something simmilar to this, this crew is very reliant on tomes for basic stuff; how does this crew work when they got no tomes on the initial hand?7

 

18 hours ago, Marc Bowling said:

Just wondering what the odds are of drawing a 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 or 13 of tomes in his opening hand of 7 is.

There are ways to make good use of lower tomes, a Doppleganger may copy a Cyclops Ice Pilars with an stat of 7, so she may use 4 and 5.

1 to 5 can be used with Primordial Magic, attacking one of your models to get "Surges" and hope for better cards (make him incorporeal first)

BBS may create corpses with Masks, which may be used later for Pilars using Lyssas/Thoon (very short range tho so not sure how useful this is)

Cheap models may use opposed duels without a damage flip to fish for cards (relenting or to damage would force you to pick and place the weakest card on top of the discard pile and picking a moderate or severe on a straight or positive flip might damage your models too much). A Lyssa Bring it that ends with the Lured model out of range, stagger or a wicked doll threaten can put 2 cards on the discard pile if the duel isn't relented (asuming you may chose the order in which the cards ends in the discard pile; which I think it's true, but not 100% sure). Not relenting and failing one of those duels isn't the end of the world and it may give you ways to set up a good card in your discard pile.

18 hours ago, Maniacal_cackle said:

The hypergeometric calculator is perfect for this:

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx.

Great, meanwhile I was doing all my maths at Excel 🙈.

18 hours ago, Marc Bowling said:

Oh dang I forgot about initiative!

Technically you can still do it, but it's very resource intensive; so probably not worth it:

• ER: Old Ways the initiative card, cheat the good card,
• ER: Old ways the good card,
• Bonus: Old ways the initiative card away.
• ER: Old ways the good card again.
• Heal him with Serena, twice.

[Maniacal_cackle]

2 minutes ago, Ogid said:

Great, meanwhile I was doing all my maths at Excel 🙈.

Excel is way stronger, but the calculator is perfect for quick and dirty calculations. Definitely my first pit stop for any deck-related calculations!

[Morgan Vening]

On 9/24/2020 at 2:04 PM, Maniacal_cackle said:

The hypergeometric calculator is perfect for this:

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

• Population size: 54 (for 54 cards in the deck)
• Number of success in population: 8 (for 8 cards you're after)
• Sample size: 6 (for six cards in hand)
• Number of successes in sample: 1 (you only need one card meeting your requirements).

Hit calculate, and you can see at the bottom that you have a 63.7% chance of having at least one card that meets these requirements. If you include the red joker, it goes up to 68.4%.

While your numbers are still close enough to what's needed, if that's the data you entered, it's flawed.

Primordial Magic has Arcane Reservoir, so the Sample Size would be 7.

[Alcathous]

On 9/24/2020 at 3:35 PM, Ogid said:

I was also wondering something simmilar to this, this crew is very reliant on tomes for basic stuff; how does this crew work when they got no tomes on the initial hand?7

Euripides himself can get enough pillars on the board to get his ice palace rolling, regardless of opening hand. I find it's much worse when you don't have the Rams you need for shatterering surprise. 

[Ogid]

15 minutes ago, Alcathous said:

Euripides himself can get enough pillars on the board to get his ice palace rolling,

Lol, I guess the cold never bothered him anyway.

15 minutes ago, Alcathous said:

I find it's much worse when you don't have the Rams you need for shatterering surprise. 

So what do you do in worst case scenario? Just use 2 AP from the master to create 2 ice pilars, expend SS to create aditional ones?

Do you rely on Shattering Shove (Gigants) for any kind of opening? How do you pivot when the inital hand make that impossible?

[Adran]

1 hour ago, Ogid said:

 

Do you rely on Shattering Shove (Gigants) for any kind of opening? How do you pivot when the inital hand make that impossible?

Most importantly is to not let your opponent know.

If you often do the shove, people will be playing defensively to deal with it, and the longer they are trying to stop something you can't do anyway the better you'll do. 

Especially because with the old ways you may be able to still do it. 

[Alcathous]

On 10/4/2020 at 10:04 AM, Ogid said:

Lol, I guess the cold never bothered him anyway.

😝

On 10/4/2020 at 10:04 AM, Ogid said:

So what do you do in worst case scenario? Just use 2 AP from the master to create 2 ice pilars, expend SS to create aditional ones?

T1 I am willing to spend 2-3 AP and a high tome + old ways to get 4+ pillars out. My goal is to have 7 by the time combat starts on T2. Ideally, they are placed so that the opponent is spending AP to remove them or avoid them. If I don't have a tome in hand, I'll hold Euripides until there's a tome on the discard pile (if I think I need the AP) or bite the bullet and spend the AP 1-for-1. That said, even when I don't have a tome in hand, intuition and old ways usually make up the difference and I can get at least one frozen domain off.

On 10/4/2020 at 10:04 AM, Ogid said:

Do you rely on Shattering Shove (Gigants) for any kind of opening? How do you pivot when the inital hand make that impossible?

Only if I've built a crew around tossing in a wrecking ball (Titania, Nekima), and I usually only do that if I think I've lost at master declaration. If I'm relying on getting shove off for a dive, then I'm also running two Pacts on minions (gigants) to maximize the chance of getting the tomes. 

In general, I think Euripides is a late game master. Diving with Shove is plan B or C. I don't like rushing to engage before the end of T2 unless I'm up against a crew that will scale better than mine or up against a threat that negates my defenses. With a board that's full of pillars, the giants are really quite good at attrition and soaking enemy AP. Plus, Euri and the Gigants have a great mid-range artillery barrage if you're able to force the enemy to come to you.