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It's technically possible to remove your entire deck (except jokers) with a Dreamer crew.


Maniacal_cackle

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42 minutes ago, Myyrä said:

You don't really need o computer simulation to reach the conclusion that having to remove a severe is very rare. The probability of having to remove a severe, is the same as drawing 3 severe cards or jokers from a deck = 14/54 * 13/53 * 12/52 0.0147

Concerning "don't really need", I present myself as evidence to the contrary. QED.  😤

Seriously, for me at least the issue was that the estimate I had was getting magnified by the perceived severity of the result.  Sort of like if this was "Roll a D20 every time this action is taken.  On a 1, kill this model."

Although, admittedly, the other part of it is that I was looking for a toy sim problem to work on rather than a math problem.  🤷‍♀️

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1 hour ago, Ogid said:

A quick note, a bad result isn't just getting 3 severes; a flip with 3 cards above 7 is a bad LD (and in that case it's better removing the highest card for the stitched). The probability to get 3 cards above 7 is much higher (around 10%).

But in turn 3 you want to remove 8s also, so not that bad anyways. 

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2 hours ago, ShinChan said:

But in turn 3 you want to remove 8s also, so not that bad anyways. 

8s still win duels and pass Tn's, and by turn 3 your deck is not so thinned that an 8 doesn't still look good. My personal experience is that a flop of 8,9,10 or similar is terrible no matter what turn it is, because all those cards are 'good' (read:better than average) but removing any of them won't be useful to my card recyclers (stitched together)

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7 hours ago, ShinChan said:

But in turn 3 you want to remove 8s also, so not that bad anyways. 

That requires a list very focused in LD, kind of 7-8 LDs in turn 1 and an enemy unable to rush or hit the LD engine... which isn't common. A list starting with 4-5 LDs which is also removing some high cards for stitcheds won't want to remove any 8s.

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12 hours ago, Sharp_GT said:

8s still win duels and pass Tn's, and by turn 3 your deck is not so thinned that an 8 doesn't still look good. My personal experience is that a flop of 8,9,10 or similar is terrible no matter what turn it is, because all those cards are 'good' (read:better than average) but removing any of them won't be useful to my card recyclers (stitched together)

I'm happy to remove a 10 and use it defensively when a stitched is attacked, or offensively if they refuse to attack Stitched. You're never going to have a perfect set of lucid dreams.

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22 hours ago, Ogid said:

That requires a list very focused in LD, kind of 7-8 LDs in turn 1 and an enemy unable to rush or hit the LD engine... which isn't common. A list starting with 4-5 LDs which is also removing some high cards for stitcheds won't want to remove any 8s.

I may have misunderstood Solkans work, but from what I read of it, at 8 removed cards you typically have a mean of greater than 8. So if your list is doing 4-5 LD a turn, then by turn 3 you should actually be happy to see an 8 disappear to improve your deck. (obviously the lower the card the better, but if you're just looking at the deck improvement then this flip would still be improving the deck by turn 3, even if it happened on turn 1)

On ‎12‎/‎8‎/‎2019 at 6:04 AM, Sharp_GT said:

8s still win duels and pass Tn's, and by turn 3 your deck is not so thinned that an 8 doesn't still look good. My personal experience is that a flop of 8,9,10 or similar is terrible no matter what turn it is, because all those cards are 'good' (read:better than average) but removing any of them won't be useful to my card recyclers (stitched together)

I agree 8s do win duels and are normally an ok card to have on a flip, (they are also amongst those annoying cards that if they are in your hand at the end of the turn that you can't decide if you want to keep them in hand or put them in the discard pile.)

That said, my perception of the cards value, and its actual value in a Lucid dream affected deck is probably not going to be in agreement all that often.

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45 minutes ago, Adran said:

I may have misunderstood Solkans work, but from what I read of it, at 8 removed cards you typically have a mean of greater than 8. So if your list is doing 4-5 LD a turn, then by turn 3 you should actually be happy to see an 8 disappear to improve your deck. (obviously the lower the card the better, but if you're just looking at the deck improvement then this flip would still be improving the deck by turn 3, even if it happened on turn 1)

Removing an 8 isn't that good imo. With 4 LD per turn and asuming the best case scenario you'd have removed all the 1 and the 2 in the beginning of turn 3 so there are a lot of cards to remove before starting with the 8; removing an 8 doesn't make the average of the deck worse, but it doesn't improve it either and make more likely getting those other low cards (3-7), so it's far from ideal.

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53 minutes ago, Ogid said:

Removing an 8 isn't that good imo. With 4 LD per turn and asuming the best case scenario you'd have removed all the 1 and the 2 in the beginning of turn 3 so there are a lot of cards to remove before starting with the 8; removing an 8 doesn't make the average of the deck worse, but it doesn't improve it either and make more likely getting those other low cards (3-7), so it's far from ideal.

Math have proven that with 12 lucid dreams in the first 2 turns (6 each turn), at the beginning of the third you should remove the 8s if you want to have the better overall flips.

On 12/8/2019 at 2:04 PM, Sharp_GT said:

8s still win duels and pass Tn's, and by turn 3 your deck is not so thinned that an 8 doesn't still look good. My personal experience is that a flop of 8,9,10 or similar is terrible no matter what turn it is, because all those cards are 'good' (read:better than average) but removing any of them won't be useful to my card recyclers (stitched together)

 

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1 hour ago, Ogid said:

Removing an 8 isn't that good imo. With 4 LD per turn and asuming the best case scenario you'd have removed all the 1 and the 2 in the beginning of turn 3 so there are a lot of cards to remove before starting with the 8; removing an 8 doesn't make the average of the deck worse, but it doesn't improve it either and make more likely getting those other low cards (3-7), so it's far from ideal.

Of course it isn't ideal, but it's not a catastrophe either. Then again, if an 8th is the lowest option to remove, it's usually where I set aside a severe card for Gamble Your Life.

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6 hours ago, ShinChan said:

Math have proven that with 12 lucid dreams in the first 2 turns (6 each turn), at the beginning of the third you should remove the 8s if you want to have the better overall flips.

With each LD you want to improve your deck, so you want to remove low cards, removing cards around the average of the deck won't make the average much better and it'll increase the variance (more chances to get a good card or a bad card). That's not bad, but it's not good either. Also 6 LD the first 2 turns is a list with a fair ammount of minions; I understand it's an average to not overcomplicate the simulation tho.

The simulations are a very nice help to have some data, but in a real game scenario it varies a lot. If the other player is very agressive and manage to kill some minions quickly / force removing high cards to be able to defend, then the combat turns that will matter will be sooner and there will be less models alive to LD (and in that case a high card removed for the stitched is much more valuable than a 8 for when the deck is super strong in turn 4 or 5). Also summoned models have to choose between doing 2 actions or 1 action and LD (stunned) or can just be killed before they have the change to be activated.

In a list with a high number of LDs (6-7) where the crew isn't pressured, then removing 8s isn't a bad call (however in that scenario IDK what is the other player doing), but in a list with 3-4 LDs where also high cards are being fished for the stitched it won't hurt, but it won't help either so removing a high card in that LD will be better.

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After a few games against Dreamer it's pretty obvious this mechanic is too much. Perhaps fewer models should able to do it, or it should require an actual action AND an 8+ to succeed or something?

A crew who has very small chance of dealing only weak damage on a :-flip:-flip:-flip damage flip in turns 4 and 5 is a bit much. Plus it takes time for all those models to exile those cards all the time.

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4 hours ago, Erik1978 said:

After a few games against Dreamer it's pretty obvious this mechanic is too much. Perhaps fewer models should able to do it, or it should require an actual action AND an 8+ to succeed or something?

A crew who has very small chance of dealing only weak damage on a :-flip:-flip:-flip damage flip in turns 4 and 5 is a bit much. Plus it takes time for all those models to exile those cards all the time.

In my experience, most games are largely decided by turn 3, so having moderate damage for turns 4 and 5 isn't as OP as people make it out to be.

At that point, most of your actions will be dedicated to scoring (or denying) points.

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