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Lucid Dream change

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1 hour ago, Red_deff said:

Yeh that's what it seems like to me, feels like your making future deck better but this turns deck a lot worse as you can end up discarding severe and moderate a lot.

Maybe if the ability was something like

"Remove one card, discard one card, shuffle one back into the deck"

This is probably my favorite solution right now.

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1 hour ago, Red_deff said:

hmmm yeah you might be right, plus perhaps all the shuffling would slow play to a bit of a ridiculous degree.

That could be minimized by adding "End this model's activation" or something similar to the end of the ability, so it can't be done mid activation.

"I do this, I do that, I do Lucid Dreams, flip 3, burn this one, discard that one, put this one in my deck, your turn, *shuffle shuffle shuffle*".

Usually your opponent takes a little while to figure out what he wants to do, so make that when you're needing to shuffle.

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10 hours ago, Red_deff said:

Yeh that's what it seems like to me, feels like your making future deck better but this turns deck a lot worse as you can end up discarding severe and moderate a lot.

You might discard severes and moderates sometimes, but you also might discard the three cards on top of that severe too. Mathematically, Lucid Dreaming from the top of the deck changes the odds of your next duel just the same as Lucid Dreaming off the bottom or removing any other three random cards (except for interacttions with anything that lets you peek, like Zoraida, but that just makes LD stronger).

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If people are really worried about drawing severes and putting them into their discard. Could always run some savages to take advantage of the old ways. Choosing the order of the two discarded cards and having the best of 3 is quite strong for that ability.

Also by thinning your deck you are more likely to hit that magical point in a turn where you only get severes. Ie when you have gone through your entire deck and are now flipping the severes you put on the bottom (And then just putting them back on the bottom)

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6 hours ago, ADrake said:

Also by thinning your deck you are more likely to hit that magical point in a turn where you only get severes. Ie when you have gone through your entire deck and are now flipping the severes you put on the bottom (And then just putting them back on the bottom)

That actually doesn’t work any more- the cards go to the bottom of the discard pile now, not the bottom of the deck.

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Sorry, but mathematically flipping random cards into your discard pile neither makes the rest of the deck better nor worse (on average). It merely let's you count cards and know what's left in there if you really want to do that.

I like the new mechanic but only played dreamer when it was with suffering one dmg and removing the top discard pile card. Even there I thought it was a strong mechanic although my daydreams were only there to do this mechanic and almost died by it...

Now I would advise to use it as often as possible (except you really counted cards and know that there are only severe or 7+ remaining in your deck). However, I also like the idea of suffering 2dmg as an alternative to removing one of the cards.

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Okay, so we can forever put the math and stat bit to rest, here is the actual reality, matlab code below: 

As it stands, your deck steadily improves as you remove cards, on average, in much the same way as previous incarnations of the ability. Removing 15 cards results in an increase of your average flip from 7 to 8.

1150585122_averageflip.thumb.jpg.ac2a596c1574ee00df7c46a61d68cec3.jpg

This is a lot of cards removed though, and its essentially impossible to achieve this result before the beginning of turn 3 and more likely going into turn 4. 

A very important result for this crew is the powering up of "Gamble your life" and people often think that this gets wildly out of hand as you remove cards. Reality says otherwise though, as below is a plot of the probability that you win a gamble flip vs cards removed: 

173196498_gambleflip.thumb.jpg.5043fd9b3a9b9dfed6e02d8d179904c2.jpg

There is a LOT of randomness / risk in this action, and very clearly you will not dramatically alter your odds of winning just by removing cards from your deck using the current version of the ability. 

Another key outcome is what of the chance of flipping weak damage. People often talk about the odds of straight flipping a weak card, but this is irrelevant since most damage flips will be made on a negative. Below is a plot of the probability that you flip weak on a negative: 
  444301566_weakdamageflip.thumb.jpg.3ffee66003daaa4d7ca12db6d3865c2a.jpg

you greatly improve your odds of flipping a moderate or severe damage from 33% to about 55%  (i.e. the inverse of what is plotted) which is quite a nice improvement but its not going to win you the game by itself. 

So, now people can argue about the power that this has on the game, but these numbers are simply what they are and we can move past hyperbolic talk of amazing flips and ridiculous scenarios. 


 

setflips = 15;
setreps = 5000;
opponent_deck = [1:1:13,1:1:13,1:1:13,1:1:13];
    
gambleprob = zeros(setreps,setflips);
doubleprob = zeros(setreps,setflips);
    
for k = 1:setflips% N=1

for i = 1:setreps
    deck = [1:1:13,1:1:13,1:1:13,1:1:13];
    for j = 1:k 
        flip = min(randsample(deck, 3));
            index_card = find(ismember(deck, flip));
            deck(randsample(index_card, 1))=[];
    end
    store(i) = mean(deck);
   
        my_flip = randsample(deck, 1);
        enemy_flip = randsample(opponent_deck, 1);
        if my_flip >= enemy_flip 
            gambleprob(i,k) = 1;
        end
   
        dmg_flip = min(randsample(deck, 2));
        if dmg_flip <= 5 
            doubleprob(i,k) = 1;
        end
end
lucid(k) = mean(store);

end

clear i j k 

%errorbar(1:15, mean(gambleprob),(mean(gambleprob).*(1-mean(gambleprob))/setreps).^0.5)
errorbar(1:15, mean(doubleprob),(mean(doubleprob).*(1-mean(doubleprob))/setreps).^0.5)

Edited by Andrew James Princep
clarity
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On ‎2‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 4:46 PM, Red_deff said:

Yeh that's what it seems like to me, feels like your making future deck better but this turns deck a lot worse as you can end up discarding severe and moderate a lot.

Maybe if the ability was something like

"Remove one card, discard one card, shuffle one back into the deck"

Lots of people feel this, but I'm not sure that its actually a real thing. Removing cards at random from the top of your deck does not automatically make your remaining deck worse. (Sometimes it will, but sometimes it also makes the deck better, on a roughly equal rate ). 

Its a perception, and one where there is some confirmation in that as you look at the discard, it looks more like you were running a hot deck (because the worst of the 3 cards doesn't make the discard pile) but its not supported by facts.

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1 hour ago, Adran said:

Lots of people feel this, but I'm not sure that its actually a real thing. Removing cards at random from the top of your deck does not automatically make your remaining deck worse. (Sometimes it will, but sometimes it also makes the deck better, on a roughly equal rate ). 

Its a perception, and one where there is some confirmation in that as you look at the discard, it looks more like you were running a hot deck (because the worst of the 3 cards doesn't make the discard pile) but its not supported by facts.

The text in bold in what i think is the real problem about this action. 

I really like the idea behind this deck customization. However, I hate the chance of removing a high card, but even if you have some luck and keep removing 1/2/3s, the improvement is really small and SLOW. Furthermore, you will hit a diminishing return, and so there are 2 solutions:

- stop using fast actions

- try more luck but probably fail in the dimishing return trap

Both solutions are pretty bad because leave you or with minimal to none improvement, or without fast actions (because aside Chompy, other models don't have another FA). And in the meantime, the opponent is using his FA for pushing / moving / focusing /. Not counting the fact that at turn 5 the LDreaming is completely useless if you don't have heavy card draw ( probably low amount of miniatures in play, more movements and less slycing so less digging into deck). 

The question is: is really worth using a FA for removing cards for a small advantage (and than not using FA at all in the hole game) losing a potential push / move  as a FA? (like others can have)

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1 hour ago, Raging_Iggy said:

The question is: is really worth using a FA for removing cards for a small advantage (and than not using FA at all in the hole game) losing a potential push / move  as a FA? (like others can have)

Why don't you just look at the figures I posted above and judge based on that? 😅 should be fairly easy to decide if you think that's worth it

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1 hour ago, Raging_Iggy said:

The text in bold in what i think is the real problem about this action. 

I really like the idea behind this deck customization. However, I hate the chance of removing a high card, but even if you have some luck and keep removing 1/2/3s, the improvement is really small and SLOW. Furthermore, you will hit a diminishing return, and so there are 2 solutions:

- stop using fast actions

- try more luck but probably fail in the dimishing return trap

Both solutions are pretty bad because leave you or with minimal to none improvement, or without fast actions (because aside Chompy, other models don't have another FA). And in the meantime, the opponent is using his FA for pushing / moving / focusing /. Not counting the fact that at turn 5 the LDreaming is completely useless if you don't have heavy card draw ( probably low amount of miniatures in play, more movements and less slycing so less digging into deck). 

The question is: is really worth using a FA for removing cards for a small advantage (and than not using FA at all in the hole game) losing a potential push / move  as a FA? (like others can have)

I think you misunderstood the point I was making. I was referring to the cards left in the draw deck on that turn in answer to people worrying that they would just be moving severe cards to the discard pile for no benefit. They will but they will also be moving weak and moderate at a similar rate. Your overall deck is much more likely to be improving than getting worse.

I'm not sure you do have diminishing returns (until you just have a deck of 12s and 13s anyway). The improvement is small per use,. but will keep going.

I also seem to have a different mentality on fast actions that may be because I'm used to fewer models having them. I view them as a nice extra on models when they have them, but not something that you're likely to want/be able to use every time. 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Andrew James Princep said:

Why don't you just look at the figures I posted above and judge based on that? 😅 should be fairly easy to decide if you think that's worth it

I don't need to answer to my question. I already have my opinion and shared it in this thread.

That's a question that all of us should ask ourselves, to judge if Ldreaming is balanced or not. Just an extreme example: if you always start thinking that you would like another FA instead Ldreaming, then Ldreaming is bad. If you are thinking " I would never trade Ldreaming with anything", than it's too much strong.

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1 minute ago, Adran said:

I'm not sure you do have diminishing returns (until you just have a deck of 12s and 13s anyway). The improvement is small per use,. but will keep going

There are some diminishing returns but it doesn't cut in till about 20 cards removed from the deck. What you see is an appreciable departure from a linear increase in the average value of a flip per card removed (plot 1 in my post). But it does still trend upwards very steadily.

 

You're definitely right that people have a lot of weird perceptions about spoiling the deck and so on. It's like the idea that if you flip three heads in a row you're more likely to flip tails next. The deck is random, and it's finite sure but you get to the end and then you shuffle it and start again so actually it's not really finite. It's an infinite well of cards, and you should treat it as such.

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1 minute ago, Raging_Iggy said:

I don't need to answer to my question. I already have my opinion and shared it in this thread.

That's a question that all of us should ask ourselves, to judge if Ldreaming is balanced or not. Just an extreme example: if you always start thinking that you would like another FA instead Ldreaming, then Ldreaming is bad. If you are thinking " I would never trade Ldreaming with anything", than it's too much strong.

I think it's important to consider in this that most of the models with lucid dreams probably wouldn't get a different bonus action if the ability was removed.

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6 minutes ago, Adran said:

I think you misunderstood the point I was making. I was referring to the cards left in the draw deck on that turn in answer to people worrying that they would just be moving severe cards to the discard pile for no benefit. They will but they will also be moving weak and moderate at a similar rate. Your overall deck is much more likely to be improving than getting worse.

I'm not sure you do have diminishing returns (until you just have a deck of 12s and 13s anyway). The improvement is small per use,. but will keep going.

I also seem to have a different mentality on fast actions that may be because I'm used to fewer models having them. I view them as a nice extra on models when they have them, but not something that you're likely to want/be able to use every time. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, a agree with you for the discarding issue. That's not going to hurt more than 2* 13s flipped in a damage flip of 1/13/13.

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Also be aware that with the new mechanic, you will probably be able to reshuffle your deck more often during each turn. So you'll get straight benefits from removing the cards in the current turn. Also, the probability to remove a severe from the deck is very low so removing cards only increase the chance to flip severes while straight flipping.

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56 minutes ago, bedjy said:

Also be aware that with the new mechanic, you will probably be able to reshuffle your deck more often during each turn. So you'll get straight benefits from removing the cards in the current turn. Also, the probability to remove a severe from the deck is very low so removing cards only increase the chance to flip severes while straight flipping.

I'm working on this. Trying to min/max the Ldreaming thing with good options in crew. Yesterday I tested in two similar matches, I was quite impressed but can't judge for now. I think that ~50 games can be ok for a good evaluation of Ldreaming. I think that the point is that if we can dig through 2 decks at turn 3-4-5 (each of these turns), Ldreaming could be sometimes even stupidly good ( here I must go back from my first thought ). But that's just a first impression after the first reckoning game, in wich, at turn 4, things started exploding with severe damage even with - flip (pitched lots of low cards, only an 8). In the second game I had bad luck (even if I had a godly starting hand of 4 severes)and the first 8 cards where all above 4, and also an 8, 9, and 10 (here my personal choice of pitching a 10tome instead a 9mask).

The crew comp was: Dreamer, Chompy, 2* daydreams, stitched+pact upgrade, Serena, Hinamatsu, Rider+reflexes, 6ss

With this crew I tried to maximize the digging (10 cards from daydreams, 4 from stitch, 3 from Chompy. Hinamatsu+rider when in close combat just dig an entire deck alone. I must say that I didn't however flipped a bad BJ, like in the Rider moonlit charge or Dreamer's summon. In both games I always used Ldreaming, because I think that only that way we can see how much can be good (dig 2 decks per turn, that should be the goal). Obviously using it after some high cards flipped, you know how that should be done.

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New test done, yesterday. We tested turf war with new conditions (so good news for Ldreaming). 

Removed a total of 19 cards in 3 turns, thanks to the new stunned that lets our summons to use FA. I didn't remove lots of 1/2/3s, however even if I removed a 9mask, 10crows, 12 tome, after 15 cards were out of the game I started flipping lots of severes. The general feeling was good.

As I wrote in the previous 2 tests, I pushed as much as possible with 4 starting Ldreaming, even if I started with a super bad hand of 10,1,2,4,5,4.

Moreover I should say that with this push the Dreamer didn't use the buried models bonus, the summoned Alps however used it sometimes, when I activated them before using the unbury effect of the models in bury state.

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