MrDeathTrout Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I was wondering about the odds of flipping different cards given different hand sizes, , (not done yet), etc. So I generated some tables and figured would be easy to determine exactly what a was worth. Once I had the tables it wasn't as easy as I thought. I posted the tables on line as well as my thoughts what a is worth. Here's a link to the tables: http://glowingsaber.com/math.html I've put a copy of my thoughts here. I'm wonder what everyone else thinks a is worth. How much is a worth? On average a single card flip will yield a 7, a flip will yield a 10, and a an 11. Does that mean Ml 5 with and Df 8 are equivalent? No. If each player has an unfiltered hand (no holdovers from last round, no Rush of Magic, etc.) of six cards then an attacker with has 8 cards to choose from and the defender has 7 to choose from. If you look at any given result (e.g. having a 6 +) the attacker has at most a 4.8% advantage and the advantage is less than a 1% for a little over half the results. In a nutshell early in the turn the attacker will need to cheat in a card 3 at least higher than the defenders to with the duel. No assume both players have exhausted their hands are relying on just top decking what they need. The attacker now has a significant advantage. They have a better percentage chance of getting any given result or better, peaking at a 25.3% advantage for a 7+ or 8+. A 13+ only has a 8.5% advantage, but that is nearly double the chances of the defender flipping a 13+. Then again if the defender flips a 10 they need a 13+ just to tie. I though once I generated these probability tables it would be easy to answer this question, but it definitely is not simple. IMHO, a is definitely not as good as +3, is probably not as good as +2, and is probably better than +1. I would say a is roughly equal to +1.5. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adran Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I always thought the average result with a was 9. The real answer ends up depending on so many variables that it not the same for everyone. if you really want something to succeed then is worse than a +2, stat because you don't have the same range of possibilities. But if you want to preserve your hand as much as possible then is probably better than +2 stat, because you are much less likely to need to cheat first, and so get maximum value from your hand 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludvig Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 On a throwaway model you aren't going to cheat for the is amazing. As an anecdotal observation crews where almost everything has a also seem to work a lot better for me, flipping through your entire deck in a turn is very good and can give you the red joker twice apart from meaning you likely win a lot ofduels or force cheats. While playing elite crews with few I've gone whole games without ever seing the red joker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrDeathTrout Posted February 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, Adran said: I always thought the average result with a was 9. You might be right. I depends on how you define average. I went with odds are you will flip it at least 50% of the time. My math could also be off, but while I'm not 100% sure it is correct I have very high confidence it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myyrä Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 This is related: On 1/26/2018 at 6:11 PM, Myyrä said: I did some really basic stuff this time, because I think most people might not be aware of this and have not seen the previous thread where I posted more or less the same info (which is no wonder considering even I don't remember when that was). So, here you have the hit probabilities as a function of the difference between attack and defense values (atk-def): and also as a figure, because why not As you can see, having a is more or less equal to having a 2 points higher attacks stat and equal to having a 2 points lower attack stat. One would easily think that hitting something with Df 9 would be impossible when you have Ml 5 and but it's only about equal to having to throw a 6 on a normal 6-sided die. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myyrä Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, MrDeathTrout said: You might be right. I depends on how you define average. I went with odds are you will flip it at least 50% of the time. My math could also be off, but while I'm not 100% sure it is correct I have very high confidence it is. The distributions for the and are not symmetrical, so median is different from mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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