Theorycrafting changes in current models

[lusciousmccabe]

 

4 minutes ago, 4thstringer said:

Shoot, I'd take 16 Guardsmen a game with lucius just to see how it goes.  Unless the schemes had 2 of these three: show of force, hunting party, and a quick murder.

I've done 12.

 

[Surrealistik]

My ideas on how to fix Guardsmen/Lucius; let me know what you think: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cFgFzm7BqEUbZgTKv-BvbxxHikBSwPMrYjvcGaTfBhE/edit?usp=sharing

Each modified stat block has its own separate page; Guild Guardsman, Guild Hound, Guild Rifleman, Guild Sergeant, Captain Dashel and Lucius have all been adjusted.

EDIT: Also changed Surprisingly Loyal due to revision of Highest Authority.

[Surrealistik]

No feedback? Any problems with the proposed changes?

[Karolicker]

The main thing lucius needs changing is that his sword cane is actually just a plain old cane, and the attack action called 'A Damn Good Thrashing'.

[admiralvorkraft]

1 hour ago, Surrealistik said:

No feedback? Any problems with the proposed changes?

Honestly? It all looked fine. I think something other than AP transfer on Dashel might make sense, a (0) to put up a HtK aura for Guardsmen until end of turn maybe.

I just didn't comment because I don't know that threads like these are particularly useful. We've got what we've got. A Rifleman and an Austringer can make a decent ranged base, everything else can stay in the box.

[Surrealistik]

4 minutes ago, admiralvorkraft said:

Honestly? It all looked fine. I think something other than AP transfer on Dashel might make sense, a (0) to put up a HtK aura for Guardsmen until end of turn maybe.

I just didn't comment because I don't know that threads like these are particularly useful. We've got what we've got. A Rifleman and an Austringer can make a decent ranged base, everything else can stay in the box.

Dunno, I like to think that Wyrd actually cares about balance feedback; especially when there's a consensus of experienced players behind it.

As for Dashel, yeah, there were a couple of ideas I had kicking around; I just feel as a commander sort, particularly a henchman, AP transfer makes sense.

[Omenbringer]

32 minutes ago, Surrealistik said:

Dunno, I like to think that Wyrd actually cares about balance feedback; especially when there's a consensus of experienced players behind it.

I would heavily caveat this with as long as there is a lot of data to support the claims.

[Surrealistik]

5 hours ago, Omenbringer said:

I would heavily caveat this with as long as there is a lot of data to support the claims.

Well, in that regard, I've yet to hear of a Lucius list placing in any tournaments, or him being considered by tournament placers and other people I know to be experienced and capable as being anything better than bottom/low tier. As for the specific models, unfortunately there's not much hard data, but again, they rarely appear in successful, competitively orientated Guild lists (aside from Hounds of course, but they have the smallest tweak of all) so far as I'm aware.

[lusciousmccabe]

7 hours ago, Surrealistik said:

No feedback? Any problems with the proposed changes?

They seemed pretty reasonable for the most part, although you could tell personal retinue was a bit tagged on. Also, the were a few things which specified guardsmen or mimics when one would do thanks to mimics and men. I thought that was a really cool idea, but it might do weird things with useless duplications you could look at. 

 

5 hours ago, Omenbringer said:

I would heavily caveat this with as long as there is a lot of data to support the claims.

I'm normally not much of a fan of this kind of wish listing, but I think this thread has grown on me. I don't expect wyrd to trawl through it fit suggestions, but it's a good way to keeping the discussion going and lets them know people would like certain things changed.

[Tris]

If allowed I would like to say that I'm not convinced by your "new version" of the Surprisingly Loyal Upgrade - it seems to only benefit a Neverborn Lucius :/

[Math Mathonwy]

I think that the most likely change to Lucius and his crew would be through the introduction of new Upgrades. Possibly of the zero-cost variety. Similar to what they did with Tara's crew. Another possibility is of course introducing new models that have deep synergies and enable the models to do more but those are even less likely to come forth from forum suggestions, I'd think.

[Surrealistik]

18 minutes ago, Tris said:

If allowed I would like to say that I'm not convinced by your "new version" of the Surprisingly Loyal Upgrade - it seems to only benefit a Neverborn Lucius :/

Actually this is exactly the sort of thing I want to hear, and to be honest, I completely agree. I think the Elite Training should probably be generalized for up to four Guardsman and Mimic minion models rather than its effect being specific to the off-faction models hired via Personal Retinue. If you have another idea, I'm certainly down to hear it!

 

33 minutes ago, lusciousmccabe said:

They seemed pretty reasonable for the most part, although you could tell personal retinue was a bit tagged on. Also, the were a few things which specified guardsmen or mimics when one would do thanks to mimics and men. I thought that was a really cool idea, but it might do weird things with useless duplications you could look at.

Yeah; the synergy with Useless Duplications though considered is one I'm unsure as to whether it's too powerful for the cost.

[Adran]

A few quick points I got from reading it. 

Whilst I like the idea of the retain trigger, it should come with a fixed target number. 

Pack mentality does exist on other models as well. I would say that it does not seem worth the effort to change several cards (well 2 anyway) to make the number match different abilities which aren't related anyway. Changing the models that pack mentality would react to is the sort of change that I could see through an upgrade - Master of The hounds. All friendly guardsmen in play receive the Hound characteristic. (This probably isn't worth 1 ss, so it may well need some other ability)

Bark orders and Orders to volunteer are identical. Why not have them the same ability? And whilst I think it is fine on the sergeant, it does seem a bit weak on Dashel.  

Riflemen. These can put out a huge amount of damage for their cost. They can do this because they are fragile. I would be worried about making them even more durable and harder to shut down. 

 

Overall. whilst I agree that Lucius is not a strong master, I don't think he is as weak as some people here do. I have heard reports of people winning tournament games with Lucius. I've had some decent results with him, against top players and lists. 

I would also expect Wyrd to make changes via upgrades or new models, when they can, because that doesn't invalidate the cards people already have. This obviously doesn't work if you need to weaken something, but if its just making something stronger, then adding upgardes is perfectly possible whilst still making everything still legal. So why errata Surprisingly loyal, when they could make "Through think and thin" upgrade, that does what you have. (but I'm a bit hesitant over elite training. It seems much more of a 1st edition rule, with a lot more record keeping required than almost anything else.) 

[Omenbringer]

6 hours ago, Surrealistik said:

Well, in that regard, I've yet to hear of a Lucius list placing in any tournaments, or him being considered by tournament placers and other people I know to be experienced and capable as being anything better than bottom/low tier. As for the specific models, unfortunately there's not much hard data, but again, they rarely appear in successful, competitively orientated Guild lists (aside from Hounds of course, but they have the smallest tweak of all) so far as I'm aware.

Tournaments placings aren't really definitive data points as there are a lot of things that go into them. First, Wyrd would have to know how many times Lucius was entered into tournaments (no play, no data). Second, they would have to see in depth battle reports with more than just Crew composition, Strategy, and Schemes so they can determine exactly what is giving him the most issues. Third, they would have to see the trend repeated over many diverse metas not just a handful of them. None of these things are currently required to be (or really able to be) reported by event organizers. Finally, Tournament play is very different than normal play. Tournaments are generally timed events that heavily favor very specific crew builds.

Additionally, historically speaking, Wyrd prefers to pull things back into line rather than push things forward. It was (likely still is) a part of their development plan to start with models over the top and then reduce them to where they want them. As such if Wyrd was to do anything it will more than likely do as Math states below

6 hours ago, Math Mathonwy said:

I think that the most likely change to Lucius and his crew would be through the introduction of new Upgrades. Possibly of the zero-cost variety. Similar to what they did with Tara's crew. Another possibility is of course introducing new models that have deep synergies and enable the models to do more but those are even less likely to come forth from forum suggestions, I'd think.

0 cost upgrades are the most likely course of action as they are target-able and come with natural restrictions (i.e. attachment restrictions). Introducing new models to help old models is a slippery slope and usually comes with large unintended consequences.

[Surrealistik]

6 hours ago, Adran said:

A few quick points I got from reading it. 

Whilst I like the idea of the retain trigger, it should come with a fixed target number. 

Pack mentality does exist on other models as well. I would say that it does not seem worth the effort to change several cards (well 2 anyway) to make the number match different abilities which aren't related anyway. Changing the models that pack mentality would react to is the sort of change that I could see through an upgrade - Master of The hounds. All friendly guardsmen in play receive the Hound characteristic. (This probably isn't worth 1 ss, so it may well need some other ability)

Bark orders and Orders to volunteer are identical. Why not have them the same ability? And whilst I think it is fine on the sergeant, it does seem a bit weak on Dashel.  

Riflemen. These can put out a huge amount of damage for their cost. They can do this because they are fragile. I would be worried about making them even more durable and harder to shut down. 

 

Overall. whilst I agree that Lucius is not a strong master, I don't think he is as weak as some people here do. I have heard reports of people winning tournament games with Lucius. I've had some decent results with him, against top players and lists. 

I would also expect Wyrd to make changes via upgrades or new models, when they can, because that doesn't invalidate the cards people already have. This obviously doesn't work if you need to weaken something, but if its just making something stronger, then adding upgardes is perfectly possible whilst still making everything still legal. So why errata Surprisingly loyal, when they could make "Through think and thin" upgrade, that does what you have. (but I'm a bit hesitant over elite training. It seems much more of a 1st edition rule, with a lot more record keeping required than almost anything else.) 

By Retain I assume you mean Detain? If so, what would you set the TN at? Also given that a high TN would in most cases cost a high Ram command card, and require set up to beget the Paralyze condition, and gives your opponent the ability to cheat a high card to avoid Paralyze, do you truly feel that a dynamic TN is a bad thing here?

Certainly note your objections to Pack Mentality. My main concern is the fact that it retcons the ability for two models as opposed to just the Guild Hound. That said, though I agree the aura size change has the least compelling reason to be changed, I decided it may as well be as the retcon from Guild Hound to Guardsman was definitely a meaningful and worthwhile one and would require the retcon of the ability anyways.

RE: Bark Orders and Order to Volunteer: Order to Volunteer is different in that it can be used on non-Minion Guardsman such as the Sergeant.

RE: Rifleman: I recognize the cause for concern in making them more resilient to disruption. That said, I chose to make them so due to multiple observed complaints about their excessive fragility.

Concerning the Surprisingly Loyal upgrade, I changed this because I found half of it redundant in light of the 'Beckon Bodyguard' defensive trigger on Lucius replacing Highest Authority.

 

3 hours ago, Omenbringer said:

Tournaments placings aren't really definitive data points as there are a lot of things that go into them. First, Wyrd would have to know how many times Lucius was entered into tournaments (no play, no data). Second, they would have to see in depth battle reports with more than just Crew composition, Strategy, and Schemes so they can determine exactly what is giving him the most issues. Third, they would have to see the trend repeated over many diverse metas not just a handful of them. None of these things are currently required to be (or really able to be) reported by event organizers. Finally, Tournament play is very different than normal play. Tournaments are generally timed events that heavily favor very specific crew builds.

Additionally, historically speaking, Wyrd prefers to pull things back into line rather than push things forward. It was (likely still is) a part of their development plan to start with models over the top and then reduce them to where they want them. As such if Wyrd was to do anything it will more than likely do as Math states below

0 cost upgrades are the most likely course of action as they are target-able and come with natural restrictions (i.e. attachment restrictions). Introducing new models to help old models is a slippery slope and usually comes with large unintended consequences.

In general I agree that there isn't an abundance of definitive data concerning Lucius and Guardsman weakness, but again most of the information and consensus I've thus far seen appears to be that Lucius and many of the Guardsman Guildside models associated with him are wanting, to a level I have yet to see for other models.

Also would agree that the most likely changes in the end will come in the form of upgrades; I'll look into creating some Guardsman specific upgrades.

[lusciousmccabe]

8 hours ago, Adran said:

Riflemen. These can put out a huge amount of damage for their cost. They can do this because they are fragile. I would be worried about making them even more durable and harder to shut down. 

I don't get why people are always saying this. They do a point more damage than a Witchling Stalker - if you get the suit for critical strike, use focus, and have a previously activated guardsman within range of them. Thrilling. 

The Stalker is as fast, less dependent, tougher and provides more useful support to your crew. It'll also probably get to deal damage more reliably since it isn't neutered by engagement and explodes if it just dies. The only thing that Riflemen have going for them by comparison is range, which they don't have enough of for it to matter half the time. 

Having said that I think a Rifleman is a reasonable ranged damage support for a Guardsman crew, or at least it would be if that crew itself was reasonable. As it is you tend to want to either waste a tonne of points on their silly combo while buying into the Guardsman theme, or ease off from that and end up replacing them with Austringers because they're more reliable. And also a Guardsman. 

/rant 

[daniello_s]

Well said. 

[admiralvorkraft]

Given decent lanes of fire, and a strat that requires the opponent to occupy a given part of the board, one Rifleman and an Austringer combo pretty well. Any more than that is sinking two many points into a static fire base in a game where mobility is the most important deciding factor. 

[LunarSol]

44 minutes ago, admiralvorkraft said:

Given decent lanes of fire, and a strat that requires the opponent to occupy a given part of the board, one Rifleman and an Austringer combo pretty well. Any more than that is sinking two many points into a static fire base in a game where mobility is the most important deciding factor. 

I generally consider this a good way to learn to pay an extra point for a second Austringer instead.

[Omenbringer]

3 hours ago, Surrealistik said:

In general I agree that there isn't an abundance of definitive data concerning Lucius and Guardsman weakness, but again most of the information and consensus I've thus far seen appears to be that Lucius and many of the Guardsman Guildside models associated with him are wanting, to a level I have yet to see for other models.

Well keep in mind that there have been other models that were called virtually unplayable only to be called OP'ed later (Som'er Teeth Jones comes to mind). Some crews are designed around a very specific niche that doesn't necessarily appeal to every players preferred style. Personally I find Lucius and the Guardsmen to be decent models though squeezing the most out of them requires a specific play style.

That's not saying I wouldn't like to see some things pushed (not only Guardsman models) only that it is more likely we'll see things pulled down (and there are quite a few of those that need to be addressed).

[lusciousmccabe]

33 minutes ago, Omenbringer said:

That's not saying I wouldn't like to see some things pushed (not only Guardsman models) only that it is more likely we'll see things pulled down (and there are quite a few of those that need to be addressed).

Do you mean in Guild or with Lucius or in general?

I agree that there's more of an incentive to change things if they're too strong rather than too weak, but I think in second Ed there aren't many masters who are too far ahead of the curve, whereas Lucius is about as useless as original Hamelin or The Dreamer were ridiculous. 

 

[admiralvorkraft]

2 hours ago, LunarSol said:

I generally consider this a good way to learn to pay an extra point for a second Austringer instead.

There's something to be said for having high enough weak damage that you aren't chucking your high cards all the time. Granted, on most boards you're absolutely right.

[Omenbringer]

3 hours ago, lusciousmccabe said:

Do you mean in Guild or with Lucius or in general?

I agree that there's more of an incentive to change things if they're too strong rather than too weak, but I think in second Ed there aren't many masters who are too far ahead of the curve, whereas Lucius is about as useless as original Hamelin or The Dreamer were ridiculous.

Particularly in Guild but also with him in particular. I think Lucius and the Guardsmen suffer from not really being as specialized as the more competitive Masters/ Crews tend to be. Add in not having ready access to summoning (this is major deficiency in this edition) and the crew suffers against the more competitive crews.

With that said, I think the larger problem is the powerful outliers that exist in the game (and their are more than a few). For example I consider the normal Guild Guardsmen a fairly well balanced, appropriately costed model for what it does. The problem is that they are competing with other models that do so much for so little. This is why I have the somewhat unpopular opinion that Malifaux should take a break from further development for a while (at least a Gencon) and let things shake out. As long as you continue to introduce more and more models to the mix the problem just gets worse. Hoping the publication of The Otherside will allow this to happen.

[Surrealistik]

2 hours ago, Omenbringer said:

Particularly in Guild but also with him in particular. I think Lucius and the Guardsmen suffer from not really being as specialized as the more competitive Masters/ Crews tend to be. Add in not having ready access to summoning (this is major deficiency in this edition) and the crew suffers against the more competitive crews.

With that said, I think the larger problem is the powerful outliers that exist in the game (and their are more than a few). For example I consider the normal Guild Guardsmen a fairly well balanced, appropriately costed model for what it does. The problem is that they are competing with other models that do so much for so little. This is why I have the somewhat unpopular opinion that Malifaux should take a break from further development for a while (at least a Gencon) and let things shake out. As long as you continue to introduce more and more models to the mix the problem just gets worse. Hoping the publication of The Otherside will allow this to happen.

So are you of the opinion then that all of the current competitive options need to be pulled down to the level of the Guild Guard and other noncompetitive models? If so, I'm personally not convinced that this would create less upheaval than improving the noncompetitive options to be competitive.

Speaking of summoning, I did recognize that deficiency and attempt to rectify it in the form of the We Are Legion upgrade. TBH though I really hate the idea of 'mandatory' and 'must take' upgrades as a matter of principle, and I would vastly prefer that these be core rather than pretend at being optional peripherals. This is part of the reason I have distaste for upgrade based fixes, though if it's something that proves integral, and core to underperforming Guardsmen models as a unique mechanic specific to them, I'm sure I could get over that aversion rather quickly.

[lusciousmccabe]

15 hours ago, Surrealistik said:

So are you of the opinion then that all of the current competitive options need to be pulled down to the level of the Guild Guard and other noncompetitive models? If so, I'm personally not convinced that this would create less upheaval than improving the noncompetitive options to be competitive.

To be honest dialing everything back to a fair level seemed to be an objective of second Ed to begin with. A lot of models in the first book in particular are heavily stripped down from V1.5, and Guild Guards suffer from exemplifying that design where others don't.