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I thought I'd do the recreational math on a Dashel executioner summon, partly for @Khyodee, who had to face 3 of them over 3 rounds in the last game we played. The Base Probability: To summon an executioner, Dashel needs: 13 Ram, Red Joker, or 13 + stone for ram (5 cards of 54) I used this calculator and took the bottom value (you need AT LEAST one of the 5 relevant cards) https://rgbstudios.org/replacement-calc/?N=54&m=5&n=7&k=1 So, in a 6 card draw of 54 cards, the probability of AT LEAST one of the 5 cards you need is: Base Probability of Executioner Summon Card: 36.9% Dashel has this probability if he forgets to hire any models and just shows up with his totem with no plan. Sounds high? Remember, this is the probability of having ANY of the five cards, PLUS the probability of having any combination of the five cards. The probability of having, say, all five in a six card hand is FAR lower, at 0.00018%. So Dashel players are going to draw their summon card in a starting hand a bit over 1/3 of the time. So why does it seem like they ALWAYS have access to it? Let's run some more numbers: Stoning for Cards: Stoning essentially means we have an 8-card pool instead of a 6-card pool: Probability of Hand + Stones for an executioner: 56.7% So if your Dashel opponent stoned for cards, it is likelier than not that they started with at least one king or red joker. Sure, it fails to happen plenty of times, but it is literally "not unlikely" to happen at this point. Tools for the Job: Bringing a Guild Lawyer lets you add Tools for the Job to the math. This is tricky math. The set of cards it might let you pick up is something like this: n activations before Dashel (summoning opportunity) * X distinct cards on the top of your discard pile (a model walk-focusing doesn't change the top-card, so this takes active management) Plus, the opponent can interact with this. Did you use your Guild Steward to use Foul Mouth Motivation and flip the red joker on the heal flip, then immediately stop your activation? Hans can just focus-shoot anything just to force a card to flip, and at least one of your five summon cards becomes inaccessible this round. This is mitigated a bit because if you're using Tools to search for a summon card, then your odds of flipping one again is working from a smaller set of 54 cards - 6 card hand - 2 cards stoning - 1 initiative flip, so a minimum of 4/45 odds that even if they make you flip one card, it still might be a second summon card. But anyway: we can at least reliably show the math of a Guild Lawyer accessing an initiative flip card, with the assumption that this gives the Guild player initiative and the opportunity to start with the lawyer and pick the card up. If the opposing player can cheat a 13 to force it to flip away, that changes this math, but we'll ignore that case for now, between the base odds, player choice, and deployment zone distances. Base hand (6) + stone for cards (2) + initiative flip Tools for the Job (1) = 61.4% We're now up to 61.4% with tools for the job, just off of the initiative flip. Key points for Guild players maximizing tools options: - You will probably have about 5 chances with this: initiative flip, plus five models activating before the lawyer, then Dashel. (A high case of 6+2+5 unique Tools chances = 76.3% chance) - You want to be careful NEVER to flip on a negative if you're spending round 1 hunting for a summon card: the red joker will rise to the top, but any flipped king will be buried by any weaker card, and your odds of finding one drop significantly The Lawyer also brings a Surge trigger on his bonus action. The odds impact here is a bit tricky because of the interaction with Tools and the fact that if you Tools a card, you don't need the case where you Surge-draw a card, and vice versa, but if we treat it as a strict opportunity to draw one more card (on the assumption that having NO summon cards in hand raises the odds of having at least one 4Tome+ or flipping it on the bonus) the odds should rise to about 65.4%. After a Lawyer's activation, the Dashel player has close to a 2/3 chance of having an executioner summon card. Dispatcher and Steward: A lesser-known interaction: The Guild Steward's Protection Money ability allows him to draw cards whenever an enemy scheme marker is dropped within aura-6". This can be cheesed out by the Guard crew with things like "Drop it!" (Dashel can stone for this on his gun), but those are difficult to set up on your initial turn, and if Dashel is doing it to try for his summon card, you're in to desperation math ... although if you've exhausted all the other cases, the odds of this play having an impact have also gone up a bit. The interaction you have better control over is this: The Dispatcher's Internal Affairs trigger on his Consolidate Power bonus action allows you, on a 5Masks+, to choose and remove a friendly scheme marker within 2" of the target that was moved (which must be a friendly minion -- say, a Lawyer). This causes you to drop an enemy scheme marker (triggering a draw from the Guild Steward), AND remove the friendly scheme marker involved (you have the Dispatcher treat himself as this with Aethervox Broadcaster, and he then draws a second card). So if you have a 5Masks+ in hand at any point, you can draw 2 more cards. So: we remove 1-4M and 13M (it's already in the odds as a summon card), and the odds of having 5-12M (8 cards) in hand are: - Base hand (6): 63.7% - Base hand + stone (8): 74.9% - Base hand + stone + initiative Tools (9): 79.2% etc. So about an 80% chance of cycling two cards. Admittedly, if you've got a 12M, you might rather keep it and summon a mounted guard with a stone. But you could also cycle it for 2 cards: Base hand (6) + stone (2) + Internal Affairs (2) + Initiative Tools (1): 69.6% Base hand (6) + stone (2) + Internal Affairs (2) + Initiative Tools (1) + Lawyer Surge (1): 73.1% Diminishing Returns: You might be tempted to add a second lawyer, but it can only really add 2 instances of draw capacity: after the first lawyer's activation (1 here -- any other activation before both lawyers is covered by Tools already, so you gain nothing), and it's own option for a surge trigger ... slightly reduced because the other lawyer needs the same card pool to enable surge in the first place. A second lawyer CAN set you up for Lawyer-Tools, Dashel summons, Lawyer-Tools to retrieve the summon card for round 2 (if the opponent isn't interacting with you in round one at all ... but that's only relevant if your summon card comes from Tools or Surge; if it comes anywhere else, Dashel can use it first, then the first lawyer can retrieve it. Two lawyers CAN unlock some additional draw by having the first obey the second (Following Orders will then draw a card), but that requires a 9M or a 9+mask-discard-on-tools. Not impossible, but a narrowish window for 1 more draw option. Stubborn Numbers: You REALLY want the high end of draw-power? New Nellie Crew: "You will DEFINITELY black-joker your summon flip!" Leader: Nellie Cochrane Totem: The Printing Press Cache: 3 stones Hires: Dashel Barker (15+1) Alan Reid (8+1) The Dispatcher (3+1) Guild Steward (6) Guild Lawyer (6+1) False Witness (5) Base hand: 6 Stone: 2 Arcane Reservoir: 1 Tools Opportunities: 6 (maximum) Internal Affairs Trigger: 2 Nefarious Pact (Alan): 1 Surge triggers (Alan Reid): 2 Lawyer Surge: 1 False Witness Following Orders (Lawyer obeys): 1 Slow News Day x3 (Nellie's trigger): 9 31 cards viewed. This list at its maximum represents a 98.9% chance of drawing your Executioner summon card on round one. (or ... in Malifaux terms ... a 100% chance you will flip the black joker when you actually try to summon! 😉) "Just" taking Dashel and the Dispatcher into Nellie with Lawyer, Steward, and friends? Hand (7) + stone (2) + Tools Initiative (1) + Slow News Day (9): 89.7% chance to see a summon card. (assumes Nellie passes 3/3 Slow News Day TN's; does not include Surge draw or Internal Affairs opportunity) Minions Inbound: Long story short? Dashel's going to summon his minions, especially once a player puts the reps in to watch for Lawyer/Dispatcher triggers or adds their own favorite draw mechanic. A Mounted Guard summon with just hand-6, stone-2, and tools-initiative is an 83.3% chance, which is generously likely in statistical terms. If you've been worried about bringing him because his friends might not accept their invitation to the party, I hope this helps! If you're playing against Dashel ... perhaps a Vincent St Clair?