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About Kolath

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  • Birthday 01/01/1980

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    Alexandria, VA
  1. D_acolyte, I think your model makes a lot of sense, but unfortunately includes a lot of data about individual players that are probably not accessible (previous history, level of familiarity with a master, etc.). You are correct that player skill is a latent variable. So perhaps the better phrasing is to account for the win rate of the player. Win rate depends on a lot of variables, but I think given enough iterations we should see that some players tend to win more than others and that is the variable we'd want to control for in an evaluation of factions (or masters for that matter). Obviously a new player might be a rock star right out of the gate, but only have a handful of games reported. But given a sufficiently large sample of data, that effect should be small.
  2. Player skill obviously matters a lot. What would be interesting though would be a statistical analysis that looks at whether any factions have better win rates while also controlling for player skill. That's the key the is doing to regressions while accounting for (and thereby eliminating player skill as a variable to try to get at the underlying faction variable).
  3. @Aaron, just a thought, but unless there are plans to make M3E before January 2018, you might want to put the year on the card since it might be confusing if in Jan 2018 you make a further tweak to any of these models.
  4. I'm thrilled to see that @Aaron is willing to introduce balance and clarity tweaks to the game! The biannual timing should (hopefully) make it more regular and easier to check for (especially if it easily coincides with annual Gaining Grounds packet). I think there are still some tweaks needed (Have Trixibelle lose Reckless for example), but this is a great start and bodes well for continuing support of the game. Great work!
  5. @Aaron, just curious if you can share any info on overall participation by factions? Was it at all close? My perception is Arcanists, Rezzers, and Neverborn are the most popular factions overall, I'm curious if they just swamped the poor TT and Outcasts by sheer weight of games or if it was actually a pretty close win?
  6. @Aaron, any word on when the Emissary cards will be released to print on demand?
  7. Slight amendment (if I understand the rules correctly)... Using your example. Turn 1: Tengu is summoned and gains Flicker +2 and Slow Turn 2: Tengu activates (slow), but can interact because it was not summoned this turn; At end of turn, flicker reduces to Flicker +1 Turn 3: Tengu activates as normal; At end of turn flicker reduces to 0, sacrifice the Tengu.
  8. @Justin, thank you! This was a perfect way to solve this issue. To be clear I primarily play Outcasts and I just won a recent tournament using Levi and the rat engine and I am really glad to see this change. It was never a fun list to play and it was an obvious NPE for my opponents, but it was "the best" list available. I'm excited to see the field evened a bit so I can feel more justified running the other Outcast masters (who I always preferred anyway). I am very encouraged to see Wyrd take the community's concerns into account and enact a change that is both respectful of players' purchases and also helpful to the balance and fun of the whole game. Nice work! PS - Now I also don't have to bug you about this at Gencon, so that's a plus too
  9. Hey guys, I'm the one with the rat trap posted above (we did win). A couple of us from the US scene just found out about this, got excited, then discovered it was sold out. Any chance of adding more teams and/or are any teams looking to drop?
  10. Cool! What is the intent of the "Teams" section? I'm not sure why players should be grouped by state... we don't really organize teams along state lines (case in point the DC-metro area spans DC, VA, and MD and we all frequently play together and team up at events).
  11. Based on the silhouettes, here are my predictions. (Not sure about Outcast vs. Arcanist, so that's an OR, not a dual). What do you guys think?
  12. Just read those FAQ entries you posted. I still think the statement that you resolve the action effects during step 5 of the duel step seems to contradict the rules on page 37 that have a separate step for resolving the action. But setting that aside, is this what you are saying the timing is? 2. Perform Duels (Perform the duel steps 1-4) 2.5. Determine Success 2.5.1. Model with higher total succeeds if it hits any applicable TN (attacker wins ties) 2.5.2. Discard all cards used in the duel 2.5.3. Resolve any triggers that do not specify any other timing 2.5.4. Resolve action effects and damage Apply any before damage effects Flip for damage Declare any cheat of damage Apply modifiers to damage Apply any damage replacement effects Target declares soulstone prevention Apply final damage to the target If model is killed, resolve any effects that trigger on death following general timing rules 3. Resolve Results 3.1. Resolve “After damaging”, “After Succeeding”, “After Failing”, and “After Resolving” triggers 3.1.1. Defender resolves triggers 3.1.2. Attacker resolves triggers 3.2. If any model is at 0 wounds, remove from the game
  13. @solkan, excellent clarifications on steps 1 and 2! Thank you. Here's my question about the first part of your response. No where in the rules does it say the order that things happen after step 5 and according to the rules for actions, step 5 does NOT include resolving the action. Specifically under the rules for actions (shown below). All of steps 1-5 in the duels section occur during step 2 of resolving an action. When the rules say "These effects are resolved after Step 5", that just means they resolve in the 3rd step of resolving an action. I legitimately cannot find any place in the rules that states the order that things occur during the "Resolve Results" section. The only reference to resolving order is just this section I originally quoted which is pretty useless because just says that things happen here. One would infer here that "After damaging" must happen after damage occurs. But if you go by the guidance to resolve triggers as soon as possible, I would think that "After succeeding" and "After failing" would happen immediately after step 2.5. I suppose technically "After resolving" has to happen at the very end of step 3 after "after damaging", but by that point I don't know of any rules that really care the order. As far as the rules appear to state, damage does NOT occur during step 2.5 (aka "step 5"). The example of resolving an opposed duel simply says that now that the attack has won the duel, we move on to Action resolution step 3 (Resolve Results). So again, everything happening after step 5, but I don't see anything that specifies the order that they happen after step 5.
  14. Hamelin player here. Archfiend has the right of it. Blighted doesn't do anything on it's own. Almost all blighted interactions simply care if a model has blighted or not. Here are a couple examples: Nix can take an upgrade that let's him take the charge action (normally costs 2 AP) as a 1 AP action against models with blighted Rat Kings have the same take a charge as (1) against blighted models Hamelin's "The Pipes" lure ability moves blighted models their Cg distance (non-blighted move their Wk) There are, however, a couple effects that care about the amount of blighted: Most importantly, the Bleeding Disease ability that Hamelin, Obedient Wretch, and The Stolen have. This ability is an attack that causes the target to suffer an amount of damage equal to it's blighted condition. Nix has an aura that prevents models with a blighted value of 4 or more from taking any interact actions while inside the aura
  15. I've gone through the rulebook a couple times and several different questions in this forum I think there is a really strong need for a comprehensive listing of the timing for resolving an action. The rules for this are spread across several different sections of the rulebook and it can be confusing. In particular I'm confused by the timing of things like Jack Daw's Firing Squad Injustice and Sloth's Just Lay Down trigger. So, please take a look at the below proposed comprehensive timing guide. At the end I cite my rules sources. Does this look accurate? And if not, what needs to change? 1. Declare Action & Spend AP 1.1. Declare Action 1.2. Other player declares responses (May generate a new nested action) 1.3. Active player declares target(s) 1.4. Active model spends AP 1.5. Resolve randomization for shooting 1.6. Resolve on targeting effects (e.g. Terrifying, Manipulative) 2. Perform Duels 2.1. Declare Soulstone Use 2.1.1. Defender declares soulstone use 2.1.2. Attacker declares soulstone use 2.2. Flip Fate Card and Add Stat 2.3. Choose to Cheat Fate 2.3.1. Losing player declares any cheat 2.3.2. Winning player declares any cheat 2.4. Declare one Trigger 2.4.1. Model with lower total (or defender if tied) declares one trigger 2.4.2. Model with higher total (or attacker if tied) declares one trigger 2.5. Determine Success 2.5.1. Model with higher total succeeds if it hits any applicable TN 2.5.2. Discard all cards used in the duel 2.5.3. Resolve any triggers that do not specify any other timing 3. Resolve Results 3.1. Resolve “After Succeeding” and “After Failing” triggers 3.2. Resolve action effects 3.2.1. Apply any before damage effects 3.2.2. Flip for damage 3.2.3. Declare any cheat of damage 3.2.4. Apply modifiers to damage 3.2.5. Apply any damage replacement effects 3.2.6. Target declares soulstone prevention 3.2.7. Apply final damage to the target 3.2.8. Apply any after damage effects of the action (not triggers!) 3.3. Resolve “After Damaging” and “After resolving” triggers 3.3.1. Defender resolves triggers 3.3.2. Attacker resolves triggers 3.4. If model is at 0 wounds, resolve abilities that trigger on death 3.4.1. Acting model resolves abilities 3.4.2. Defending model resolves abilities 3.4.3. First player resolves abilities on other models (in any order) 3.4.4. Second player resolves abilities on other models (in any order) 3.4.5. Resolve any strategy or scheme effects that trigger on death 3.5. If model is at 0 wounds, remove from play Sources